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Drought Demolisher III Rain/Thunderstorms Observations


Rainshadow
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33 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

NCAR mesoscale models ensemble mean not that heavy as some on precip.

 

The heavier qpf model runs had us getting significant rain by now and radar doesn't look that impressive.

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The heavier qpf model runs had us getting significant rain by now and radar doesn't look that impressive.

I have to say I am unimpressed with the way the (new and improved) Euro has handled these three events for our area.  It might still salvage today, but it went off the rails early and often with the previous two and it is by far the wettest with this event too.

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Like chubbs said, we lost out on the first of a few rounds of expected heavy rain (overnight). That will make the higher totals  a tougher line to reach. 

We'll see how are going forward. 

0.02" imby

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Just now, Parsley said:

HRRR was pretty bad too. Last night

it was pretty aggressive on round 1 overnight rain. 

The moment the HRRR overdoes upstream convection, its doomed to fail, its like the genie out of the bottle, its (overdone) lifting mechanism outflow boundaries just go in one direction.

We will see what the Virginia convection does, not much of a difference thru 11 am between the 02z op hrrr and nextgen hrrr.

totp_z4sfc_f13.thumb.png.95e25cb97cf2f31896436093af1e8bcb.png

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Current radar shows elevated convection moving north (plenty of lightning in those "storms")

 

you can see see the current projected sounding from the 3k NAM:

 

IMG_3108.thumb.PNG.2cdec9375acc241224d1262f2fcedddb.PNG

 

IMG_3109.thumb.PNG.7e54b6d9011d3db8dc1b7921fefe3185.PNG

 

and then around 18z, our MUCAPE values get in the 1000-1500 range. Notice the lack of surface cape for sepa on the bottom left of the sounding. This should limit the severe threat for us. Can't rule out a window though around 21-23z for something stronger. 

IMG_3110.thumb.PNG.66fe642d6cbb89abd0dcaa3d8ccbe454.PNG

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7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Current radar shows elevated convection moving north (plenty of lightning in those "storms")

 

you can see see the current projected sounding from the 3k NAM:

 

 

 

 

 

and then around 18z, our MUCAPE values get in the 1000-1500 range. Notice the lack of surface cape for sepa on the bottom left of the sounding. This should limit the severe threat for us. Can't rule out a window though around 21-23z for something stronger. 

 

Most of the activity seems to be west of the river and moving more nne. HRRR hitting that pretty good

hrrr_t_precip_nj_14.png

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No changes to northern extent in 13z update but SPC cut back the enhanced further south. Convection along Carolina coast didn't help.

 ...Mid-Atlantic region through early afternoon...
   Overnight convection has lingered near the NC coast, and anvil
   cirrus has overspread eastern NC and southeastern VA this morning. 
   Low-level moisture inflow across eastern NC/VA has been
   disrupted/reduced by this convection, and the clouds will likely
   slow surface heating prior to frontal passage.  However, strong
   forcing for ascent and modest moisture recovery ahead of the front
   will support a severe-storm risk until the cold front moves offshore
   this afternoon.  Very strong deep-layer shear and conditionally
   unstable midlevel lapse rates will support a risk for damaging winds
   and marginally severe hail with embedded cells/line segments, and an
   isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with fast-moving cells.
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