Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 NCAR mesoscale models ensemble mean not that heavy as some on precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: NCAR mesoscale models ensemble mean not that heavy as some on precip. The heavier qpf model runs had us getting significant rain by now and radar doesn't look that impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chubbs said: The heavier qpf model runs had us getting significant rain by now and radar doesn't look that impressive. I have to say I am unimpressed with the way the (new and improved) Euro has handled these three events for our area. It might still salvage today, but it went off the rails early and often with the previous two and it is by far the wettest with this event too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Like chubbs said, we lost out on the first of a few rounds of expected heavy rain (overnight). That will make the higher totals a tougher line to reach. We'll see how are going forward. 0.02" imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 This was a local area fail by (and not only) the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: This was a local area fail by (and not only) the Euro HRRR was pretty bad too. Last night it was pretty aggressive on round 1 overnight rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 round 2 taking shape in VA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Just now, Parsley said: HRRR was pretty bad too. Last night it was pretty aggressive on round 1 overnight rain. The moment the HRRR overdoes upstream convection, its doomed to fail, its like the genie out of the bottle, its (overdone) lifting mechanism outflow boundaries just go in one direction. We will see what the Virginia convection does, not much of a difference thru 11 am between the 02z op hrrr and nextgen hrrr. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 The heavy convection along the SE coast overnight may have robbed some of our moisture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Convection firing in Va, WVa and WPa. Warm front is somewhere in S De. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 The warm frontal rains didn't pan out for us till it was past us. That's what the euro was pretty heavy on and then heavier with the stuff after 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Current radar shows elevated convection moving north (plenty of lightning in those "storms") you can see see the current projected sounding from the 3k NAM: and then around 18z, our MUCAPE values get in the 1000-1500 range. Notice the lack of surface cape for sepa on the bottom left of the sounding. This should limit the severe threat for us. Can't rule out a window though around 21-23z for something stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Current radar shows elevated convection moving north (plenty of lightning in those "storms") you can see see the current projected sounding from the 3k NAM: and then around 18z, our MUCAPE values get in the 1000-1500 range. Notice the lack of surface cape for sepa on the bottom left of the sounding. This should limit the severe threat for us. Can't rule out a window though around 21-23z for something stronger. Most of the activity seems to be west of the river and moving more nne. HRRR hitting that pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 A rumble of thunder as first batch of heavy rain moves in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 No changes to northern extent in 13z update but SPC cut back the enhanced further south. Convection along Carolina coast didn't help. ...Mid-Atlantic region through early afternoon... Overnight convection has lingered near the NC coast, and anvil cirrus has overspread eastern NC and southeastern VA this morning. Low-level moisture inflow across eastern NC/VA has been disrupted/reduced by this convection, and the clouds will likely slow surface heating prior to frontal passage. However, strong forcing for ascent and modest moisture recovery ahead of the front will support a severe-storm risk until the cold front moves offshore this afternoon. Very strong deep-layer shear and conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates will support a risk for damaging winds and marginally severe hail with embedded cells/line segments, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with fast-moving cells. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 .11 so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: .11 so far We have drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 thunder and 43 at work, yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Pouring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Thunder in Plymouth Meeting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 It's the spring of 45 and thunder baby!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: It's the spring of 45 and thunder baby!!! #winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 47 and drizzle. Meanwhile its 70 in Georgetown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 0.30" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 0.45" - Just had a close CTG stroke as a heavier cell went through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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