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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well as of now, the gfs is the only pinger so far. Ukmet,ggem,euro would be all snow for you

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday.

So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail.

On Saturday, a Victoria's Secret model may hand deliver it to your door.

For the ladies, right now the autographed picture of George Clooney has arrived.

On Saturday he may be hand delivering it and staying for coffee.

 

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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Be interesting if that look holds if something can pop under that h5 low. The euro had a pretty big disconnect between the southern low and the ULL. At that timeframe the coastal is well past us. 

Wonder if we get one model run at least that puts all the pieces together in time for our area.

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Maps on Pivotal at 96 have the rain snow line on the NW side of 95 around these parts, but the sounding shows snow and 38F at the surface with H85 temps near 32--probably because of just atrociously high snowfall rates--convection over the area.  Transfer ready to happen and this thing is going to totally crash and bomb.

To bring a DT term into this, the 12Z GFS is a HECS N&W, and probably not coming that far N&W.

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Goes nucking futs with moisture bomb all up in our business.  Yeah bl gets a bit torchy, but within the spread of ensembles.  Either way we're talking 2"+ liquid all through our area.  Paul and Matt up to Anthony etc in the crush zone of 20"+

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1 minute ago, jrodd321 said:

Until the Euro or another model shows it this amped i don't think it will be that close to the coast. 

I do think there's A chance. Anytime you're dealing with phased solutions and departing blocks, you have a window for a coastal runner. 

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At this juncture, I'm simply appreciating the fact that we have a strong coastal storm being modeled.  The finer details will be worked out in the next few days, and shouldn't be too big of a concern just yet.

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3 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Until the Euro or another model shows it this amped i don't think it will be that close to the coast. 

numerous EPS members had that hugger to a little inland track

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1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

I do think there's A chance. Anytime you're dealing with phased solutions and departing blocks, you have a window for a coastal runner. 

Oh completely agreed. Just hoping all other guidance at 12z today doesn't go towards the gfs. It's still a solid foot plus for us Brian before any type of possible mixing. 

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5 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Need to see that SLP in the OH valley to die out a little quicker. Still think we have room to adjust east towards benchmark track. This scenario is absolutely possible though. Just can't wait to BAN Tombo myself!!

That primary in OH valley is what I don't like. We will see what other models show though. Just one possible solution of many. 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

That primary in OH valley is what I don't like. We will see what other models show though. Just one possible solution of many. 

It's a good surface look, OH primary transfers to our SE and decays.  Look at the NE flow.  I'm sure mid layers get a bit dicey, but with that strong HIGH the flow is where we want it at the surfact at least.  

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5 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Until the Euro or another model shows it this amped i don't think it will be that close to the coast. 

Also, there is a cluster of inland runners on the EPS. 

 

I still caution people, not to lock into the snowiest solutions. Still 80-100 hours out. Things can change for the worse. 

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