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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

6 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Nam warmer by 9z reading and tombo are sleeting. Mix gets close to allentown. 

Def gets the sleet farther north this run but then swings a heavier band eastward and still puts Reading 16-18". It ever-so-slightly cut totals SE of Philadelphia, on WB maps at least.

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Looking over the NAM runs this evening.  Amazed how close the low tracks to the coast.  Certainly would cut the totals a lot if you take the run verbatim, especially south and east of Philly. Eagerly will be looking see how things verify with the track of this storm.  Just not sure I buy the solution of the low tracking that close to the coast.  

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5 minutes ago, trev1997 said:

NAM says Philly is almost all sleet, whereas the 01Z HRRR keeps Philly all snow

Yeah.  Thru hr 13, it's got 13-16" using the charming and delightful Kucera algorithm along 95.  Whereas, the NAM is 2-4" along I-95 INCLUDING NYC (which is under a Blizzard Warning for 12-24").

 

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Keepin the faith!

1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Latest hrrr. DP at Philly reaches 31 (highest it goes verbatim)@9z, but drops after that to upper 30's, especially after precip kicks up. Check it out, and that precip explosion too... whew. IMG_2778.PNG

IMG_2777.PNG

IMG_2779.PNG

IMG_2780.PNG

I'm keepin' the faith.  

I agree with you.  The HRRRs look decent and are trending positively , NAM is drunk or so I hope, Canadian and GFS looked good too.  

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FWIW, SPC Meso Discussion:

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

   Areas affected...Northern VA...Central MD...Southeast PA...Western
   NJ

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 140201Z - 140600Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will blossom across this region
   during the evening hours, with rates of over 1"/hour possible
   through 06z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop indicates that precipitation is
   rapidly increasing in areal coverage and intensity across parts of
   the Delmarva region.  At 01z, snow is being reported along and north
   of a line from NYG - NAK - PTW, while rain is being reported to the
   south.  This rain/snow line will likely move only slightly northward
   before 06z, suggesting that the DC and Baltimore metro areas will
   remain in mostly frozen precipitation.  However, several recent
   model runs suggest that this southern fringe of the snow zone may
   begin to mix with/change to sleet or freezing rain around midnight
   as profiles begin to warm in the 900-700mb layer.  Nevertheless, it
   appears likely that a corridor of locally heavy snowfall rates will
   develop from far northern VA, northeastward into central MD and
   southeast PA through 06z.  Warm surface temperatures may result in
   substantial melting of snow initially, but higher rates will likely
   overcome the warm ground and begin to accumulate soon.

 

mcd0291.gif

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2 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

If the HRRR is to be believed, that's a nice little jackpot zone in eastern Lancaster County.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk
 

If you want to hedge your bet on the mesos then CXY/LNS northeastward toward AVP/ABE appear to be a prime spot. 

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1 hour ago, rramblings said:

Hope this question is in the right forum

Ok, I have a model-related question. I am interested in Hurricane Hunters and have noted that an USAF Hurricane Hunter flew over the weekend to do recon on the low that was then in the Gulf. As I write this, another Hurricane Hunter, AF309 is flying in the Atlantic. I follow the Hurricane Hunters on Aerial Recon in the Atlantic Basin.

Question: How quickly does the data from the USAF Hurricane Hunter get incorporated into the models. I know that their is a computer link between the Hurricane Hunter and one of the NWS sites and their computers. And I believe that the data from the dropsonde is sent directly to NWS computers. But from their the data has to get into the models. How long does this take? Google earth screen shot taken at about 9:30 PM.

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 9.44.55 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 9.38.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 9.53.00 PM.png

Tyler,  

There is a cut off time.  Admnfd says the dropsondes did get into the nam.  

Brutal forecast cut-off along I95. Regardless of what follows, it should continue to keep snow for at least then next four hours, still snowing in DC.

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