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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

Here is the text

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...

.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per
hour are expected.

NJZ015-PAZ102-104-106-140615-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Mercer-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Trenton, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
  Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches.

* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
  to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
  with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for several
  hours Tuesday morning. Snow may mix with sleet for several hours
  Tuesday morning which could reduce overall amounts. Snow will
  diminish late in the day Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and
  may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
  snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to
  blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power
  outages.

* WINDS...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Less than one-quarter mile for several hours.

* TEMPERATURES...Around 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&
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True blizzard conditions require sustained winds of 35 mph resulting in whiteout conditions though, correct?

I didn't think winds would be a huge issue this far inland (central Berks County). Looks like NWS is all in on the 18"-24" for where I'm at..

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5 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

True blizzard conditions require sustained winds of 35 mph resulting in whiteout conditions though, correct?

I didn't think winds would be a huge issue this far inland (central Berks County). Looks like NWS is all in on the 18"-24" for where I'm at..

Not sure if it's sustained or just 35 mph in gusts or higher for 3 straight hrs

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4 minutes ago, Shu Suzuki said:

I am a noob compared to many here but can someone explain this map?  Is it correct it is showing around 1 inch of snow for south Jersey?

The white area is less than one inch. That reflects the particular model and algorithm used outside of the model to convert the model output to a snow accumulation number

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36 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

As mcuh as the NAM is the NAM a tug of cold air coming back in quick on the backside is plausible. 

Nam ptype superior to the gfs as long as its qpf isnt totally unreasonable.  This is tug of war (I295 corridor) we are in.

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41 minutes ago, HaroldG said:

That is an amazing cut off to the SE.  How reliable?

The general idea (less) is correct, the amounts are not. 

These snowfall amounts to coin a phrase I heard about my own that I used to generate with the NWS are extremely precise, but inaccurate.  Given the sleet potential from around I95 corridor southeast, I add another layer of imprecision on top of the one it already has.

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