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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would think the globals with lower resolution just aren't picking up on thermal influences as much as mesos are

Stronger HP in Quebec on the latest GEM (allows for more persistent N flow)--also the H85 low is a little more south of the surface reflection not allowing for as much WAA at the H85 level.  925mb is still TBA.

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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I would think the globals with lower resolution just aren't picking up on thermal influences as much as mesos are

IDK, the higher resolution NAM was colder so we really a have mix bag still of the rain/mix/snow lines. This just looks so close that back and forth will be the likely outcome for areas near the Delaware river. You're area should be ok maybe mix with sleet while Atlantic city is fried. 

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2 minutes ago, Tiburon said:

Stronger HP in Quebec on the latest GEM--also the H85 low is a little more south of the surface reflection not allowing for as much WAA at the H85 level.  925mb is still TBA.

If the 850 low forms quicker that would be better, it stops the southerly flow

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5 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

IDK, the higher resolution NAM was colder so we really a have mix bag still of the rain/mix/snow lines. This just looks so close that back and forth will be the likely outcome for areas near the Delaware river. You're area should be ok maybe mix with sleet while Atlantic city is fried. 

May just come down to a game time call. qpf distribution can swing things one way or the other. A heavy fast front-end is probably best for I95

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5 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

IDK, the higher resolution NAM was colder so we really a have mix bag still of the rain/mix/snow lines. This just looks so close that back and forth will be the likely outcome for areas near the Delaware river. You're area should be ok maybe mix with sleet while Atlantic city is fried. 

prateptype.us_ne.png

phl def mixes. they get 2.4 qpf and 17" of snow. So they lost .75qpf to sleet

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8 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

IDK, the higher resolution NAM was colder so we really a have mix bag still of the rain/mix/snow lines. This just looks so close that back and forth will be the likely outcome for areas near the Delaware river. You're area should be ok maybe mix with sleet while Atlantic city is fried. 

Unfortunately (as far as forecasting accuracy) the line in the sand is probably going to be +/- 20 miles of I95 as far as sleet goes and then again maybe intensity, banded driven.  Regardless there is a front end heavy snow period and then its really comes down to the team that can shoot the 3(s).  Unless there is a collective 60 mile shift to the east, there is really no confident lead time on this.

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16 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

IDK, the higher resolution NAM was colder so we really a have mix bag still of the rain/mix/snow lines. This just looks so close that back and forth will be the likely outcome for areas near the Delaware river. You're area should be ok maybe mix with sleet while Atlantic city is fried. 

This was a 12z vs 6z comparison (except for the ggem which was 00z) using the 0C as a proxy at 24hrs

Nam colder

4km nam colder

3km nam about the same

Rgem same

GFS same

Ggem colder

Obviously above 850mb notwithstanding.

 

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This could be a I'll ban myself if this happens post

snku_acc.us_ne.png

1233400426_guy%20falls%20of%20chair.gif

Count me in the group (if there is one) that is worried about a sleet surge north into the Delaware Valley Tuesday morning. This has happened before in big storms where we still made out well 12-20 inch events.

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Timing of mixing is about the same on 12z GEM but qpf arrives faster.

 

you can add ukmet to that too. Though it looks like it's a little more tucked in lol. But it has more phasing with northern stream which cold negate that

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

you can add ukmet to that too. Though it looks like it's a little more tucked in lol. But it has more phasing with northern stream which cold negate that

Freudian slip or wishcast?

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This was a 12z vs 6z comparison (except for the ggem which was 00z) using the 0C as a proxy at 24hrs

Nam colder

4km nam colder

3km nam about the same

Rgem same

GFS same

Ggem colder

Obviously above 850mb notwithstanding.

 

At least we've stopped the bleeding.

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