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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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Just now, anthonyweather said:

Only concern is that EPA dry slot depicted in 12 k nam, icon, and German

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Well the German model still gives you over 1.2 qpf so not much of a dry slot there. The nam Is holding onto that primary tonlong and transfers over later. Should see that correct in future runs as long as that NS s/w remains very weak and southern stream stronger. 

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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well the German model still gives you over 1.2 qpf so not much of a dry slot there. The nam Is holding onto that primary tonlong and transfers over later. Should see that correct in future runs as long as that NS s/w remains very weak and southern stream stronger. 

Yes I feel more confident with a mainly Miller A system. Jan 22, 1987 is another partial analog. Forecast was 2-4"changing to rain  ended up with a foot near phl all in 4-5 hours at temps near 32F. 

012221.png

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17 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

off the top of my head I'm only aware of 4 frozen events at PHL with 2"+ qpf

APR 1915

DEC 1909

JAN 1978

FEB 2010

your knowledge on that stuff is way better than mine, so I'm going to default to you. Unless we get a shift a little further offshore I would think mixing comes into play at phl.  Like I said above, hard to get all frozen in these big wound up storms because they have such a strong inflow off the ocean. 

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yes I feel more confident with a mainly Miller A system. Jan 22, 1987 is another partial analog. Forecast was 2-4"changing to rain  ended up with a foot near phl all in 4-5 hours at temps near 32F. 

literally a game time decision between rain & snow, that uncertainty & the fact that it started after the morning rush meant everybody went to work so the 2"+ afternoon rates coupled with commuters pouring out at the same time resulted in the worst weather related PM rush, my father left 30th & Market at 2:30 & didn't get home in Lower Bucks until after 11:00

My sister had to walk the last mile of her commute from Warminster to Feasterville as Street Road was turned into parking lot of abandoned vehicles. 

Excellent lightning & thunder with that storm

PHL was 9", locally Lower Bucks had 12"

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

your knowledge on that stuff is way better than mine, so I'm going to default to you. Unless we get a shift a little further offshore I would think mixing comes into play at phl. 

agree, something that wound up close to the coast is going at least ping at some point

JAN 1978 went over the heavy sleet for at least a couple of hours after the 13" thump

remember listening to Elliott Abrams many times growing up saying alot of the big ones go over to sleet at the height of the storm

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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is phl's Low level cross section of the atmosphere. You can see a little period tuesday around noon where it could flip to zr or zr/ip

 

Where do you make those? 

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40 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

literally a game time decision between rain & snow, that uncertainty & the fact that it started after the morning rush meant everybody went to work so the 2"+ afternoon rates coupled with commuters pouring out at the same time resulted in the worst weather related PM rush, my father left 30th & Market at 2:30 & didn't get home in Lower Bucks until after 11:00

My sister had to walk the last mile of her commute from Warminster to Feasterville as Street Road was turned into parking lot of abandoned vehicles. 

Excellent lightning & thunder with that storm

PHL was 9", locally Lower Bucks had 12"

That was a nightmare in NJ also many of my co-workers spent 4 or 5 hours on 295.  

 

1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

off the top of my head I'm only aware of 4 frozen events at PHL with 2"+ qpf

APR 1915

DEC 1909

JAN 1978

FEB 2010

How about PDII in 2003 - 18" plus a lot of sleet? 

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As excited as I am about the strong high pressure to our north, I hadn't noticed a small lobe of it breaking off and sliding off the jersey coast tomorrow.  Kind of a small anticyclonic mesoscale feature. This coupled with the decaying northern low abruptly shifts the surface flow to southerly.  See the clockwise spin slide off the coast.  It may make our antecedent conditions not quite as prime as I had hoped and possibly have some impact downstream on mix line.  Not a fan of the timing.

nam.sfct_b.us_ne.2017031218-loop.gif

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15 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

As excited as I am about the strong high pressure to our north, I hadn't noticed a small lobe of it breaking off and sliding off the jersey coast tomorrow.  Kind of a small anticyclonic mesoscale feature. This coupled with the decaying northern low abruptly shifts the surface flow to southerly.  See the clockwise spin slide off the coast.  It may make our antecedent conditions not quite as prime as I had hoped and possibly have some impact downstream on mix line.  Not a fan of the timing.

 

I don't think it really breaks off, it's a banana high setup. There is still 1030+ hgts all across new england. It's more like an area of stronger hp slides off. The end of the run with the easterly flow is from the storm starting to come up.  Not arguing the mixing factor though, thats legit. Would like to see the 850 low close off sooner and not over phl

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