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Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?


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What a night.... thanks as always to Tom, Irish, Tony, Mitch etc for your invaluable insights!!!!

I don't have anything of meteorological value to add to this forum, but before things get even crazier I wanted to thank all of you for posting the maps, summarizing what they mean and what the implic

Well I was backtracking, it looks like all of the energy players are within raob range come the 12z run on Saturday. So right now the Victoria's Secret catalog is coming in the mail. On Satu

8 minutes ago, Coltsfan1217 said:

It's a shift east of 12z. and it's a snow bomb. Low stays offshore instead of riding into the Chesapeake 

eventually, we're going to have to start talking about the structure from surface to 500mb. Verbatim, the GFS track would probably be ptype-dry slot issues towards SEPA due to the 700mb low passage. 

700rh.us_ne.png


700rh.us_ne.png

need that south and east of us. 

 

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You can see what i mean here:

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

strictly verbatim off the GFS type track.

There was some noticable changes @H5 that looked like GFS was shifting towards the euro. Less phasing earlier on, southern stream digs a little more. 

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7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

eventually, we're going to have to start talking about the structure from surface to 500mb. Verbatim, the GFS track would probably be ptype-dry slot issues towards SEPA due to the 700mb low passage. 

700rh.us_ne.png


700rh.us_ne.png

need that south and east of us. 

 

I'm excited because I agree, GFS and Euro seem to be nearing consensus. 

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7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

You can see what i mean here:

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

strictly verbatim off the GFS type track.

There was some noticable changes @H5 that looked like GFS was shifting towards the euro. Less phasing earlier on, southern stream digs a little more. 

Dry slot straight through my area :(

 

hopefully it changes for the better before t-zero! Still time left :)

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20 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

eventually, we're going to have to start talking about the structure from surface to 500mb. Verbatim, the GFS track would probably be ptype-dry slot issues towards SEPA due to the 700mb low passage. 

700rh.us_ne.png


700rh.us_ne.png

need that south and east of us. 

 

The euro, because it has a better defined southern low, is able to develop the H7 low south of us, putting us on the NW side of it. That's a lot better of a look. The euro is just better stacked from surface,850,700mb lows, that when the northern stream low (h5/ULL) catched it, dry slot is less pronounced. That's a big difference between euro and GFS at this point in time. 

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24 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

eventually, we're going to have to start talking about the structure from surface to 500mb. Verbatim, the GFS track would probably be ptype-dry slot issues towards SEPA due to the 700mb low passage. 






need that south and east of us. 

 

Need that ULL from the NS to dig under us instead of over/to the north of us. It's pretty much just a quick 12hr slaughter with 1-2"hr snows. You get that ULL to dig under us then fully phase then the storm becomes a beast. 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Need that ULL from the NS to dig under us instead of over/to the north of us. It's pretty much just a quick 12hr slaughter with 1-2"hr snows. You get that ULL to dig under us then fully phase then the storm becomes a beast. 

Here's what I'm saying. 

 

Because the euro is able to develop the southern vort slp on its own, before the influence of the H5 @slows it down,  it starts to develop its own 850mb low and 700mb low. Stacking... because it does this, there's less dry slot:thermal issues. On the GFS, the H7 low develops overhead and slower. Euro has it faster developing and to our S&E. 

 

valid 12z Tuesday. GFS VS EURO:

 

H7/700mb RH field and pressure. See how the euro has the 700mb low down south and east, while GFS develops its overhead. 

 

We want less less influence for northern stream initially, as the storm down south gets its act together and stack up. Then, we want a good amount of phasing, influence for H5. Also, less northern stream earlier on will kill off the surface low over the lakes. 

IMG_2680.PNG

IMG_2681.PNG

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5 minutes ago, Coltsfan1217 said:

18z GEFS mean is west of OP... but it loses the very NW lows, and has significant consolidation. Ensembles may lock in fully tonight based on trends from Euro and GFS

looked like more were further west this run compared to 12z

 

gefs_slp_lows_swatl_17.png

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Just now, Coltsfan1217 said:

I take back my comment. I was looking at the panel before the one you posted. 

Yea it's nothing to worry about yet. As we have been saying things will continue to bounce around. A lot of moving parts

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Looking through the idv EPS. The coastal huggers are almost best for Tony/myself northwestward. Just phrase it as 12 inches with a rain/sleet period and/or dry slot or just get 6 from the CCB. My caution with this thinking is warm layers are always underdone. BL could fry more than shown if the low gets too close to shore. If it goes up through Del it's just a thump to a flood rather quick. ACY obviously pulling for the more offshore track. I think the EPS have to much backlash as well, a retired met mentioned quite often that rain to snow is really rain to nothing (wonder who???). 

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7 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Looking through the idv EPS. The coastal huggers are almost best for Tony/myself northwestward. Just phrase it as 12 inches with a rain/sleet period and/or dry slot or just get 6 from the CCB. My caution with this thinking is warm layers are always underdone. BL could fry more than shown if the low gets too close to shore. If it goes up through Del it's just a thump to a flood rather quick. ACY obviously pulling for the more offshore track. I think the EPS have to much backlash as well, a retired met mentioned quite often that rain to snow is really rain to nothing (wonder who???). 

even if you get a track up the delaware you will still start off as snow with the airmass in place. Then you would go over to non snow. I'm not sure the gfs and gefs are entirely correct in the primary holding that long and strong and some of the gefs members way west. If I had to put a gun to knee, I'd say furthest west this comes is like a 12z gfs and that still clobbered a lot of area. It was nice seeing the further west eps members at 0z come east. If I had to take a WAG for final track it would be  inside a BM track maybe a little east of 18z gfs track

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

even if you get a track up the delaware you will still start off as snow with the airmass in place. Then you would go over to non snow. I'm not sure the gfs and gefs are entirely correct in the primary holding that long and strong and some of the gefs members way west. If I had to put a gun to knee, I'd say furthest west this comes is like a 12z gfs and that still clobbered a lot of area. It was nice seeing the further west eps members at 0z come east. If I had to take a WAG for final track it would be  inside a BM track maybe a little east of 18z gfs track

If the farthest west track is because of boisterous convection from the Gulf Stream, I agree.  Models sometimes ramp lows too quickly.  If the farthest west track is caused by the Baffin Island phased northern stream low digging farther to the southwest, its a run or two away from a thicker raob network.

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If I can pad stats with a heavy snow to heavy rain coastal hugging beast more than a weaker and/or OTS track that produces all snow then give me the changeover scenario. Snow cover in March is meh anyway. 

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