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3/1/17 Strong To Severe Thunderstorm Observations


Chubbs
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As the primary jet core races across the OH Valley toward southern
   New England there appears to be a greater risk for organized severe
   thunderstorms to cross the Appalachians along the PA/MD border
   region.  For this reason have extended higher wind probabilities
   east to account for the possibility for longer-lived wind-producing
   bow-type structures.

day1otlk_1200_3_1.gif

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Lots of cloud debris out there this am; whoever manages to get under some sun has the better chance. 

IMG_2491.GIF

 

 

We'll have to see how our EML mixes out throughout the morning:

 

IMG_2492.GIF

 

Again, main storm mode will be linear, but anything that can become discrete or fire ahead of the line may be able to produce a tornado. Be safe today all. 

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Dew points are increasing across the Delmarva. Below is Salisbury - this is a little ahead of the HRRR prog.

D
a
t
e
Time
(est)
Wind
(mph)
Vis.
(mi.)
Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative
Humidity
Wind
Chill
(°F)
Heat
Index
(°F)
Pressure Precipitation (in.)
Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter
(in)
sea level
(mb)
1 hr 3 hr 6 hr
Max. Min.
01 06:54 SW 14 9.00 A Few Clouds FEW008 63 63 63 56 100% NA NA 29.87 1011.7     0.05
01 05:54 SW 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW008 62 62     100% NA NA 29.90 1012.6      
01 04:54 SW 12 10.00 Fair CLR 61 61     100% NA NA 29.91 1013.0      
01 03:54 SW 5 6.00 Fog/Mist FEW003 57 57     100% NA NA 29.93 1013.8   0.05  
01 02:54 S 5 8.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN019 57 57     100% NA NA 29.95 1014.4      
01 01:54 S 7 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW037 SCT060 BKN075 57 57     100% NA NA 29.97 1015.1 0.05    
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From SPC 8AM update

It appears increasingly likely destabilization will
   not be inhibited by prior storm activity from the southern half of
   WV east-northeastward into the D.C and DelMarVa areas.  CAM
   guidance, in particular the 01/00z NSSL WRF, appears to have a
   relatively good depiction of the evolving convective lines through
   12z this morning.  Storm-scale guidance moves a squall line into the
   I-95 corridor during the early afternoon (roughly 18-21z) coincident
   with appreciable diurnal destabilization and steepening of low-level
   lapse rates and becoming more favorable for momentum transfer.  In
   addition to the risk for widespread damaging winds, the
   stronger/longer-lived mesovortices embedded within the line may
   yield a weak tornado risk.

day1otlk_1300_3_1.gif

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That batch of light to moderate rain is a buzz kill north of the Maryland/Delaware line. Modeling at 00z did have it. Only problem is the squall line is moving a little faster than anticipated, limiting the destabilization window further north. 

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AAANNNNNDDDD it filled back in and is pouring. Couple good cracks of thunder close by and the skies opened up. This won't last long either.  Adding .05" out of that for a total of Round 1 of .16" of rain.

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