Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Well whether its wave 1 hits, the Costanza bizzaro world MJO Phase or the strat warming phase II, the CFS2 for now is starting the month of Smarch with a normal to cold look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 If there is a "pattern" to these monthly outlooks that is sticking, Canada is cold, southeastern conus is warm. To which one can say, thank-you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 That first look on the cfs looks like cutter galore. The warm/wet, cold/dry look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That first look on the cfs looks like cutter galore. The warm/wet, cold/dry look Well the wet part would hopefully leave the cobwebs on the drought thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Maybe we get a cool (which now means near normal) August out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Maybe we get a cool (which now means near normal) August out of this. we've actually had four below average AUG's over the past 10 yrs., the way things are going we may have used up our allotment for awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said: we've actually had four below average AUG's over the past 10 yrs., the way things are going we may have used up our allotment for awhile Can we then shoot for July? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Can we then shoot for July? I shoot for the summer of 2000 every season, unfortunately my hopes are usually dashed by Flag Day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 CFS thoughts.... thanks stormvistawxmodels.com for sharing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 eps have a pretty decent cold shot around feb 27th tmeframe, but it only lasts a couple days before warmer air moves in again. They have a pretty solid -epo, but the ridge axis out west is offshore which would promote a higher chance of cutters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Noticed that the CPC composite ensemble map centered on the 27th looks like cutter city, but not necessarily torchy. Maybe it's col/dry then warm/wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowlurker said: Noticed that the CPC composite ensemble map centered on the 27th looks like cutter city, but not necessarily torchy. Maybe it's col/dry then warm/wet. Yup, pretty much. Ridge position out west is offshore which would make for a storm track into the lakes. With the -epo though, you have to watch for big highs getting in the way of those lows which could cause some front end frozen stuff. But with no atlantic blocking there is nothing to keep the high from moving out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yup, pretty much. Ridge position out west is offshore which would make for a storm track into the lakes. With the -epo though, you have to watch for big highs getting in the way of those lows which could cause some front end frozen stuff. But with no atlantic blocking there is nothing to keep the high from moving out. Pretty much the story of this cold season has been -nao fail at longer forecast ranges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Today's (2/17) GEFS flatter with -epo ridge once March starts, looks like cutter city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Today's (2/17) GEFS flatter with -epo ridge once March starts, looks like cutter city. pretty much same on EPS. Once towards the end of the period it looks less cutterish but the flow isn't a col one at all. Euro had a shot at 70 later next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Spring outlook out tomorrow. Hint: sponsored by . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 00z/21st OP GFS not torchy the first week of March, neither was the previous 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 Canada gets cold but its over for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 Philadelphia bias corrected temp forecast. Active severe wx season and maybe second week in March is more wintry. March +3F April +2.8F May + 3.5F 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxnut Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Mitchg said: Philadelphia bias corrected temp forecast. Active severe wx season and maybe second week in March is more wintry. March +3F April +2.8F May + 3.5F Can't go wrong from now when you forecast 2 or 3 above normal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I will leave it up to you to describe that predicted 489 thickness... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I will leave it up to you to describe that predicted 489 thickness... Thing of beauty from what I can see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.