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JB admitting his ideas did not work out for the 2nd straight year...


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"This is the second winter in a row where what was a darn good 500 mb idea did not produce the kind of cold that is normally associated with it, The major thaw was seen well in advance, and the 500 mb pattern for it did temps justice ...butt its gut busting when you do something like this and come up short. This led me to believe that UNLIKE LAST YEAR we had a good match showing up, and when this flip evolved, it would work out. The flip came, the temp response is not there...yet it was before and that is what is odd to me, I am sensitive to how warm the planet is believe me, there is no denying it, But examples of cold in other areas globally matched up nicely this year and up until the 12th were so here. The warm water off the east coast and enso 1.2 certainly have an effect I did not see, but still I would have thought with that 500 mb things would have been better

Not making excuses but I am going to point out that there was a good call here in detecting what happened in the overall 500 mb pattern, ( I know we dont live at 500 mb) . I got the pitch I wanted and the result though in the actual weather turned up far short of what I thought it would be. The fact is one maxed out, the other we got off with about as little as you can possibly have. The weather never ceases to amaze me,now interestingly enough we have had 17 inches of snow during that time here which is less than what we had in the 2010 example but above normal for a 3 week period here . Its just that DC has had next to none. And the plains where the handoff from western to eastern trough is has had a very disappointing interval. I could not have drawn it up any better and had it turn out any worse"

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