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No Its Not Your Imagination That The Models Have Struggled At Longer Forecast Ranges This Winter


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This pretty much graphically/statistically depicts what we have visually seen.  All the models 500mb skill scores are down vs last December & January at day 10.  At day 8 we were close to December 2015 to current skill, but trailed January 2016.  That pattern continued into days 5 & 6, close to December 2015 skill scores, but currently lagging January 2016 skill scores.   

 Apologies current/archive switch sides from day 10 to day 8.

Congrats on GFS being as skillful as the new and improved Euro at day 10.

 

DAY 10

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.jpg

DAY 8 VS DECEMBER 2015

day 8.jpg

DAY 8 VS JANUARY 2016

day 8 jan.png

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