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Thoughts/Comments On Model Performance on 1/7 Event.


snowwors2
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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

My fault Mitch, you did say you weren't giving up as well, my apologies. Good call. 

And the NAM also ?

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

If you are joking, it went over my head :(, but for PHL the most accurate of the six models on the spread sheet for snowfall forecast was the EPS.  Well at least the NAM didn't come in last (4th).

 

Partly, (not so much in the end with accumulations) but wasn't it the first and most persistent/consistent to portray decent snows away from the coast and across the river?

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

If you are joking, it went over my head :(, but for PHL the most accurate of the six models on the spread sheet for snowfall forecast was the EPS.  Well at least the NAM didn't come in last (4th).

 

This was a fun storm from a tracking perspective because of the potential, the favorable trends toward the end,  and the wiggle room the models were providing for back and forth discussion. Its a week like this when I really appreciate our little group.  In general the models did pretty well with this one. Initially it was difficult to tell how much energy would be ejected. Here the model spread and ensembles showed that caution was in order. Later the Ukie+GEM get gold stars for having a westward solution early and being consistent. gfs had its usual SE bias so gets last place among the globals but at least it behaved as expected. The euro was OK not a leader as it often is on east coast storms but not bad either. This was a pretty good storm for the NAM considering it often can be tossed. More erratic than the globals but at least it was pointing in the right direction in showing potential on its westward swings.  Finally the HRRR gave a head fake yesterday AM, not unusual. but it faked me out - a good reminder to be cautious on the out hour swings.

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6 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Partly, (not so much in the end with accumulations) but wasn't it the first and most persistent/consistent to portray decent snows away from the coast and across the river?

The first model or clustering to show decent snow (defined as 2" or greater) in PHL was the SREF with the day run on the 5th.  The OP 12km nam at that time was 0.  The op euro and nam (5.8"?) then had decent snows starting with the 00z on the 6th.  But the 12z run on the 6th (24 hours before it started to snow) the NAM had only 0.5" falling in PHL. It was the least snowiest of the 6 models I look at with that run.   BTW the 00z/5th next gen nam looks like it was also a shutout (it stops at 60 hrs at TT, but the low location looked pretty far se at 7 am Saturday morning). 

IMO the assessment of the nam with this event was that it was middle of the road.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

This was a fun storm from a tracking perspective because of the potential, the favorable trends toward the end,  and the wiggle room the models were providing for back and forth discussion. Its a week like this when I really appreciate our little group.  In general the models did pretty well with this one. Initially it was difficult to tell how much energy would be ejected. Here the model spread and ensembles showed that caution was in order. Later the Ukie+GEM get gold stars for having a westward solution early and being consistent. gfs had its usual SE bias so gets last place among the globals but at least it behaved as expected. The euro was OK not a leader as it often is on east coast storms but not bad either. This was a pretty good storm for the NAM considering it often can be tossed. More erratic than the globals but at least it was pointing in the right direction in showing potential on its westward swings.  Finally the HRRR gave a head fake yesterday AM, not unusual. but it faked me out - a good reminder to be cautious on the out hour swings.

Charlie, I can't look back at the Ukie, but the GEM was hardly better than the GFS with this for PHL.  Below is the day run on Thursday (the op 12km nam was the best with that run, .07" in PHL).  Prior to 12z Thu, the GEM had more "closer misses" with their runs as they brought snow to the immediate coast vs the gfs being more suppressed. But bringing snow to I95, it beat the GFS by one sounding run, the 00z run on the 6th. I would say GFS was dead last with this. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

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35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Charlie, I can't look back at the Ukie, but the GEM was hardly better than the GFS with this for PHL.  Below is the day run on Thursday (the op 12km nam was the best with that run, .07" in PHL).  Prior to 12z Thu, the GEM had more "closer misses" with their runs as they brought snow to the immediate coast vs the gfs being more suppressed. But bringing snow to I95, it beat the GFS by one sounding run, the 00z run on the 6th. I would say GFS was dead last with this.

I was thinking further out in time - this GEM run from last wed 00z was a surprise at the time but ended up being a pretty good prog considering the leadtime. The ukie was the western most model for several cycles, so didn't have to shift much at the end.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19_1_3_00.png

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13 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I was thinking further out in time - this GEM run from last wed 00z was a surprise at the time but ended up being a pretty good prog considering the leadtime. The ukie was the western most model for several cycles, so didn't have to shift much at the end.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19_1_3_00.png

Don't forget this gfs run: ;)   I wasn't looking that far back on the ggem. UKMET is a pretty decent model.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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