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01/07/2017 OBS : Beaches BIG Snow and others get???


Qtown Snow
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4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Latest hrrr gets LEHIGH county in on it. Yet again another NW push

Be careful with those late in the range hrrr maps or them just in general. Not saying what it's showing is right or wrong, but it swings wildly. 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Be careful with those late in the range hrrr maps or them just in general. Not saying what it's showing is right or wrong, but it swings wildly. 

Also, be careful with those reflectivity maps, that shows virga too. For instance thats hour 18. Now look at the total qpf that falls during the timeframe. Unfortunately, you and I are just not in a good location for this storm. 

qpf_001h.us_ne.png

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Always a favorite of mine the radar hallucinations.....no doubt we will have some very soon. The only time I remember the hallucinations becoming reality was the January 2000 storm that just kept coming North.....

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Be careful with those late in the range hrrr maps or them just in general. Not saying what it's showing is right or wrong, but it swings wildly. 

 

14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Also, be careful with those reflectivity maps, that shows virga too. For instance thats hour 18. Now look at the total qpf that falls during the timeframe. Unfortunately, you and I are just not in a good location for this storm. 

qpf_001h.us_ne.png

Tom- Is this typical as of late (last few years)? Where a coastal system, seemingly well off the coast, moves NW the last day or two giving hope to I95 N+W, only to come back to reality and settle back to a truly coastal system? 

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46 minutes ago, eastonwx said:

 

Tom- Is this typical as of late (last few years)? Where a coastal system, seemingly well off the coast, moves NW the last day or two giving hope to I95 N+W, only to come back to reality and settle back to a truly coastal system? 

Well I think i95 should see something here. But n and w it's up in the air and obviously far nw burbs on nw very much up in the air. But yea it happened a couple times last year where models moved nw inside 2 day then like the last 2 runs beforehand ticked east a little keeping most of the snow southeast of i95 and esp coastal

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Well I think i95 should see something here. But n and w it's up in the air and obviously far nw burbs on nw very much up in the air. But yea it happened a couple times last year where models moved nw inside 2 day then like the last 2 runs beforehand ticked east a little keeping most of the snow southeast of i95 and esp coastal

yea, not sure I like that trend

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4 minutes ago, eastonwx said:

yea, not sure I like that trend

not saying it's going to happen here, but it has happened before where models over correct on something then come back to the east a little. The boxing day blizzard was one that comes to mind. A day and a  half before that storm most models showed this area getting hit pretty good. Then like the last 18hrs it slipped east a little and screwed western areas. 

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4 minutes ago, eastonwx said:

yea, not sure I like that trend

I was in the midst of a texting convo with Tom, the models are not verifying the Ok trof sharply enuf (the kicker in Canada is fine by the nam).  Famous last words, I do not see an eastward tick coming with the 00z run.

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Most of the models are generally 2-3 at 10:1. Yeah, ratios will tick that up a notch but virga will eat some of that up. 

I think 2-3 in the city is not unreasonable. I wouldn't go much higher than that in Philly and going lower is certainly not out of the question.

And my less than 1" NW of 202 still stands. Wall so hard with the snow today...

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