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12/12 Weeklies, A New Year, A New Cold Pattern?


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CFS2,

Temps

Week 1....-5F

Week 2....-1F

Week 3....+5F

Week 4....0F      

cold ssta east of Delmarva; its temps bleeding into our area.

 

Pcpn

Week 1....normal ?????

Week 2....wet

Week 3....wet

Week 4....dry

500 mb generally a retrogression of our current pattern with a pumped up sern ridge and a +epo pacific flow.  Week 4 FWIW, a -nao west pattern, pacific not that great. This outlook almost looks like its half a week too slow with how the pattern is progressing.

 

 

 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

I know week 3 and 4 have been awful lately, but it looks like they did well with it 

I think they were too fast at dismissing what is currently going on though.  I cant be sure until we have a few more weeklies and go on both sides of the fence, but I am suspecting these new European weeklies (temp departures) have a cold bias.

 

 

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h5

week 1 -epo/+ao/+nao/-pna/ below normal hgts

week 2 +epo/+ao/+nao/-nao/ se ridge, abv normal hgts

week 3 +epo/+ao/-enao/-pna/se ridge, abv normal hgts

week 4 +epo/-pna/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts

week 5 +epo/-pna/+ao/+nao/ se ridge/ abv normal hgts

week 6 +nao/-epo/-pna/+ao/se ridge/ normal hgts

 

ugly look on all the weeks except week 6

 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I'm all for doing away with these dumb weeklies. All they do is create knee jerk reactions until the next run which they change 180 and then knee jerk reactions the other way. I'll stick to the dailies, you can have the weeklies. 

I am kind of the opposite, want to see if there is any skill, trend or which model is better.  If you want to drop weeks 5 and 6, that is fine by me, there is no ec vs cfs comparison then.  I cant understand the reactions myself, its low skill guidance (especially this winter) if that beyond week 2. 

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