Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 CFS2, Temps Week 1....-5F Week 2....-1F Week 3....+5F Week 4....0F cold ssta east of Delmarva; its temps bleeding into our area. Pcpn Week 1....normal ????? Week 2....wet Week 3....wet Week 4....dry 500 mb generally a retrogression of our current pattern with a pumped up sern ridge and a +epo pacific flow. Week 4 FWIW, a -nao west pattern, pacific not that great. This outlook almost looks like its half a week too slow with how the pattern is progressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like last weeks weeklies did well with the pattern breakdown at the end of the month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Looks like last weeks weeklies did well with the pattern breakdown at the end of the month? The start is within 10 days now, so it is looking correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: The start is within 10 days now, so it is looking correct. I know week 3 and 4 have been awful lately, but it looks like they did well with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: I know week 3 and 4 have been awful lately, but it looks like they did well with it I think they were too fast at dismissing what is currently going on though. I cant be sure until we have a few more weeklies and go on both sides of the fence, but I am suspecting these new European weeklies (temp departures) have a cold bias. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 ECMWF weeklies missed the end of the month warm-up. I doubt they will be very kind to those in the cold and snow camp today. Main key will be any reversal in the grinchy end of year pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just going off where the EPS led off at 0z last night, I can't imagine weeks 3 and 4 being a great look really. But we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 h5 week 1 -epo/+ao/+nao/-pna/ below normal hgts week 2 +epo/+ao/+nao/-nao/ se ridge, abv normal hgts week 3 +epo/+ao/-enao/-pna/se ridge, abv normal hgts week 4 +epo/-pna/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts week 5 +epo/-pna/+ao/+nao/ se ridge/ abv normal hgts week 6 +nao/-epo/-pna/+ao/se ridge/ normal hgts ugly look on all the weeks except week 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 temp guesses based off 850 week 1 below rest of the weeks above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 these weeklies were ran out of Gus's groundhog hole under Tony's fence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah, another no sugercoating this. First half of Jan is shot. However, quite the reversal from Thursday, could argue to much flip-flopping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 these would definitely argue against tropical forcing ideas. That would suggest a return to cold late first week or second week of January. Tropical forcing though doesn't always sit king of the throne. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: these weeklies were ran out of Gus's groundhog hole under Tony's fence Did the weekly outlooked temp departures come out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 temps week 1 -5 week 2 0 week 3 +5 week 4 +4 week 5 +3 week 6 +1 precip week 1 above week 2 above week 3 above week 4 above week 5 normal week 6 normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm all for doing away with these dumb weeklies. All they do is create knee jerk reactions until the next run which they change 180 and then knee jerk reactions the other way. I'll stick to the dailies, you can have the weeklies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 10 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I'm all for doing away with these dumb weeklies. All they do is create knee jerk reactions until the next run which they change 180 and then knee jerk reactions the other way. I'll stick to the dailies, you can have the weeklies. I am kind of the opposite, want to see if there is any skill, trend or which model is better. If you want to drop weeks 5 and 6, that is fine by me, there is no ec vs cfs comparison then. I cant understand the reactions myself, its low skill guidance (especially this winter) if that beyond week 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Why not just keep it all in one thread? Takes up less board space while consolidating info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.