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Heavy Rains/Svr threat 7/14-7/15


tombo82685
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from Mt Holly, will post it here for people to post obs to

 

Tonight's strong thunderstorm potential in Eastern Pa and Western NJ:

Based on upstream radar extrapolation and the HRRR rapid update model maintaining the strength of the band of strong storms upstream in central Pennsylvania, we are expecting a band of at least scattered heavy thunderstorms with gusty west winds to move into the Poconos between 815 and 915 PM, then progress eastward to the Interstate 95 corridor between 11 PM and 1230 AM.

Some of the storms will be rather strong with potential for 50 mph wind gusts, lightning strikes and wind taking down a few tree limbs and possibly blocking a few roads. This band should decay as it reaches the NJ coast around 2 am.

The greatest risk for strong storms with scattered power outages appears to lie from east central Pennsylvania near Reading, northeastward to the Lehigh valley and Poconos into west central and northwest NJ before midnight.

Rainfall could easily total 1 inch in 30 minutes in several locations of eastern PA and western NJ.

Those living in or traveling through E Pa and Western NJ should be alert for possible power outages late this evening and possible overnight travel adjustments, if damaging storms occur.

If there is any damaging wind, hail, unusual flooding...please report the time, location, county, specific wind or lightning damage, and/or size of hail... but whatever you do safety first!

This event should not be quite as bad as that which occurred this past Tuesday evening.

This message will be updated before 10 PM - if the band of storms looks to be weaker than currently expected.

For those looking ahead...we are expecting a very active Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. This means a few storms with greater localized impact than what will occur tonight. More on this tomorrow.

 
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Some pretty decent instability out there as of now.. CAPE over 1500, LI -4 to -6 and some decent shear. I would think we see a line that somewhat holds, weakening slowly due to the loss of sun light. PWATS are running 1.8-2 right now, which means flash flooding in heavier storms is possible.

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Here's Mt. holly' disco on today:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR

NORTHWARD.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN HAS MOSTLY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING

EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A

COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL

INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY

ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN

DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW

CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR

AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL

REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE

FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN

THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO

THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS,

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25

INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN

AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO

THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN

ADDITION TO EVERYTHING LISTED ABOVE, INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITH

LI`S FORECAST WELL BELOW ZERO AND CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED

1,000-1,5000 J/KG. ALSO, SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 35-40 KNOTS WHICH

SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING

WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR

SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Tapatalk

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Vis say shows some clearing to our west. The more clearing we get, better chance at destabilizing , better severe threat:

post-52-0-84820800-1405338996.jpg

Spc probs are 2 tor, 15% wind, <5 hail. Hail

Should be a non factor today, except in any isolated rouge supercell that can fire.

post-52-0-85708800-1405339106.jpg

post-52-0-75441900-1405339200.jpg

There is a small threat for an isolated tornado. Rich low level moisture with some decent cape. Spc touches on the threat a bit. Here's a sounding for SEPA ... While not very strong in the lowest levels, there is some curvature in the hodo's;

post-52-0-06563000-1405339374.jpg

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not much of a dry wedge above 700mb, weak mid level lapse rates. Some shear around though, combined with some moderate instability if we can get some good sunny breaks. If we get that, should be some svr storms. PWATS are expected to increase as the day goes on to 2-2.25 for the region, heavy rain will be an issue.

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FFW up from the bordering counties of i95 on nw

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-142100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.140714T1600Z-140716T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
354 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CECIL
COUNTY IN MARYLAND, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SALEM,
GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, WESTERN MONMOUTH,
MERCER, MIDDLESEX, SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND
SUSSEX, AND FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE,
NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWARE
AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO OUR REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES OR MORE MAY FALL IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

* FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE.
QUICK RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RESULT FROM THE HEAVY
RAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA BE SURE TO PAY SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS.

BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

$

IOVINO


 

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12z NAM for KPHL @ 0z..

SKT_NAM__KPHL.png

Not too shabby. 

Things going against us:

1) cloud debris
2) weak lapse rates
3)ML CAPE &  MU CAPE are pretty weak,,

things going for us:

1) AMPLE low level mositure on the roder of dp's in the 70's, PWATS @ 2.4", 
2) Sufficient SB CAPE AOA 2500 j ( assuming we can clear out)
3)Decent shear ( 30knots + around 800mb and up)
4) EHI values of 3.4 are sufficient for some rotation in thunderstorms, so any discrete cells could have super-cellular characteristics, with an isolated tornado chance.  SRH values of 150-200 m2/s2 back this up. 

Kinda gonna be one of those wait and see. While not widespread, it could produce some decent reports severe wise. Flooding will def be an issue in whatever areas receive storms. Mostly, small clusters of cell and some smaller bow echoes embedded should be expected. 


tomorrow looks OK, but mostly for 95 and east. 

 

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Sun is just starting to shine here in SEPA/ Upper Darby.. Getting nasty feeling out there. 

mcd1367.gif



 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR
WRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141706Z - 141830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE
NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN
THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE
MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1
KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014
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Sun is just starting to shine here in SEPA/ Upper Darby.. Getting nasty feeling out there. 

mcd1367.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR

WRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141706Z - 141830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM

ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE

NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY

THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING

FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN

THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.

CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG

THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT

OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE

MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO

STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1

KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND

DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY

WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014

 

 

Ha I just posted this in the Thunderstorm Thread...guess I'm hanging out in the wrong spot today. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been issued. 

 

ww0418_warnings_resize.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

DELAWARE

MARYLAND

NEW JERSEY

SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL

800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF

NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 60 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER

CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN VA...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE

WATCH AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH

STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.

...HART

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ww0418_radar.gif

SEL8
0-150000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 60 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN VA...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...HART
 

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