tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2014 Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 Lead off with the hpc 5 day rainfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 Gotta see what comes of this as it marches east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 from Mt Holly, will post it here for people to post obs to Tonight's strong thunderstorm potential in Eastern Pa and Western NJ: Based on upstream radar extrapolation and the HRRR rapid update model maintaining the strength of the band of strong storms upstream in central Pennsylvania, we are expecting a band of at least scattered heavy thunderstorms with gusty west winds to move into the Poconos between 815 and 915 PM, then progress eastward to the Interstate 95 corridor between 11 PM and 1230 AM. Some of the storms will be rather strong with potential for 50 mph wind gusts, lightning strikes and wind taking down a few tree limbs and possibly blocking a few roads. This band should decay as it reaches the NJ coast around 2 am. The greatest risk for strong storms with scattered power outages appears to lie from east central Pennsylvania near Reading, northeastward to the Lehigh valley and Poconos into west central and northwest NJ before midnight. Rainfall could easily total 1 inch in 30 minutes in several locations of eastern PA and western NJ. Those living in or traveling through E Pa and Western NJ should be alert for possible power outages late this evening and possible overnight travel adjustments, if damaging storms occur. If there is any damaging wind, hail, unusual flooding...please report the time, location, county, specific wind or lightning damage, and/or size of hail... but whatever you do safety first! This event should not be quite as bad as that which occurred this past Tuesday evening. This message will be updated before 10 PM - if the band of storms looks to be weaker than currently expected. For those looking ahead...we are expecting a very active Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. This means a few storms with greater localized impact than what will occur tonight. More on this tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 Some pretty decent instability out there as of now.. CAPE over 1500, LI -4 to -6 and some decent shear. I would think we see a line that somewhat holds, weakening slowly due to the loss of sun light. PWATS are running 1.8-2 right now, which means flash flooding in heavier storms is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 13, 2014 Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 Bring all the rain tonight please... AC is broke till tomorrow... Slowly withering away... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 It looks like the line is breaking up considerably between the turnpike and the MD line. Maybe it will reform? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 I guess I spoke too soon, the line reformed nicely. Thunder and lightning already occurring out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Wind just picked up fiercely....nothing like last Tuesday (thank God), but it's whipping up. Another great evening show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
affenage Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Hmm, the NWS mispelled Landenberg as Ladenberg. Intellicast is finally recognizing warnings in Chester County again. Hope this is brief, one of my dogs is already in a panice and it isn't here yet.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Didn't make it across the river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 .05 at work .17 in gilly, mainly a light show with some gusts to maybe 35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Here's Mt. holly' disco on today: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN HAS MOSTLY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION TO EVERYTHING LISTED ABOVE, INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITH LI`S FORECAST WELL BELOW ZERO AND CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 1,000-1,5000 J/KG. ALSO, SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 35-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Vis say shows some clearing to our west. The more clearing we get, better chance at destabilizing , better severe threat: Spc probs are 2 tor, 15% wind, <5 hail. Hail Should be a non factor today, except in any isolated rouge supercell that can fire. There is a small threat for an isolated tornado. Rich low level moisture with some decent cape. Spc touches on the threat a bit. Here's a sounding for SEPA ... While not very strong in the lowest levels, there is some curvature in the hodo's; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 here's the 0z euro CAPE forecast.. Specific location aside, you can see that whoever clears out, will get some pretty decent pockets of instability,(sorry for the grainy pic, its a cell pic of a computer screen) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 6z 4k NAM:And here's the RAP.. Show's a decent hodo (albeit weak wind fields)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 not much of a dry wedge above 700mb, weak mid level lapse rates. Some shear around though, combined with some moderate instability if we can get some good sunny breaks. If we get that, should be some svr storms. PWATS are expected to increase as the day goes on to 2-2.25 for the region, heavy rain will be an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 FFW up from the bordering counties of i95 on nw FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ354 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THISAFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT....A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURINGTODAY AND TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAYNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHFLOODING.DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-142100-/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.140714T1600Z-140716T0400Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN354 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CECILCOUNTY IN MARYLAND, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SALEM,GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, WESTERN MONMOUTH,MERCER, MIDDLESEX, SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN ANDSUSSEX, AND FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE,NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWAREAND PHILADELPHIA.* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVYRAIN TO OUR REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ANDAGAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TOTHREE INCHES OR MORE MAY FALL IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIMERESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.* FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE.QUICK RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RESULT FROM THE HEAVYRAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA BE SURE TO PAY SPECIALATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS.BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKEACTION IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.&&$IOVINO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z NAM for KPHL @ 0z..Not too shabby. Things going against us:1) cloud debris2) weak lapse rates3)ML CAPE & MU CAPE are pretty weak,,things going for us:1) AMPLE low level mositure on the roder of dp's in the 70's, PWATS @ 2.4", 2) Sufficient SB CAPE AOA 2500 j ( assuming we can clear out)3)Decent shear ( 30knots + around 800mb and up)4) EHI values of 3.4 are sufficient for some rotation in thunderstorms, so any discrete cells could have super-cellular characteristics, with an isolated tornado chance. SRH values of 150-200 m2/s2 back this up. Kinda gonna be one of those wait and see. While not widespread, it could produce some decent reports severe wise. Flooding will def be an issue in whatever areas receive storms. Mostly, small clusters of cell and some smaller bow echoes embedded should be expected. tomorrow looks OK, but mostly for 95 and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun is just starting to shine here in SEPA/ Upper Darby.. Getting nasty feeling out there. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FARWRN CTCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 141706Z - 141830ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROMERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SENY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARYTHREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCEWILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDINGFROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE INTHE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLYTHIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGTHE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTOVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAMSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ONWATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THEMCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINEDWITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLDEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TOSTEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WINDDAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLYWITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION...BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSU_Wxgirl Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun is just starting to shine here in SEPA/ Upper Darby.. Getting nasty feeling out there. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 141706Z - 141830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1 KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014 Ha I just posted this in the Thunderstorm Thread...guess I'm hanging out in the wrong spot today. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been issued. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 60 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN VA...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030. ...HART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 SEL80-150000-URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHWEST CONNECTICUTDISTRICT OF COLUMBIADELAWAREMARYLANDNEW JERSEYSOUTHEAST NEW YORKSOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIANORTHERN VIRGINIAEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLECOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL800 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELYSCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEA TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLETHE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OFNEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 60 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVERCENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN VA...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEWATCH AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITHSTRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OFDAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 26030....HART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Some pretty good gusts with the storm over Philadelphia right now, but the more dangerous line is entering New Castle county. Some 60 mph and above winds likely to occur there. May move into Delaware and Salem counties if it holds intensity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 multiple ctg strikes very close to me in southern New Castle County just east of MD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Most impressive tstorm here in years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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