Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Its pretty toasty today by December standards (with no air mass change) to get much sticking snow outside of the Poconos, higher terrain of NW NJ. Can The Aura of December 5th not care? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Looks good for NEPA and NWNJ. A second overperformer of the early season potentially. Elsewhere low levels are torched. Maybe some consolation slop near I78. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Parsley said: Looks good for NEPA and NWNJ. A second overperformer of the early season potentially. Elsewhere low levels are torched. Maybe some consolation slop near I78. NCAR ensembles crashed last night, would have liked to have seen them, they did pretty good with the last one as did at least one of the hrrr(s). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Not expecting much here. Maybe some snow mixed in with rain tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, tombo82685 said: Not expecting much here. Maybe some snow mixed in with rain tonight. Sounds about right. Nothing worth waking up to check on at 4am for me. Hopefully NEPA can cash in again, looks promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 I dont know the physical details at how these are computed, but the GEFS gives AVP (900') 1.1" tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 The SPC SREF which tends to overestimate snowfall since no sfc temps are used has 1.3" for AVP & .7" for ABE tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Mt laurel should get crushed tonight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Mt laurel should get crushed tonight With two sleet pellets mixed in the rain, issuing the winter storm warning now . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Only 43.7 here and 42.8 at KMQS...with DPs in mid-20's - I would not be surprised to see some accumulation tonight above 600 feet even this far south....but what do I know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Right or wrong, got to give the models credit for showing where it "should" snow in a set up like this. Here is the 18z RGEM for early Monday morning... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Parsley said: Right or wrong, got to give the models credit for showing where it "should" snow in a set up like this. Here is the 18z RGEM for early Monday morning... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z NAM, same time period... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Parsley said: 18z NAM, same time period... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Yup. Congrats elevations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 latest hrrr, looks like its driven purely by heavier returns cooling the BL to flip to snow for far nw burbs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: latest hrrr, looks like its driven purely by heavier returns cooling the BL to flip to snow for far nw burbs Def elevation driven in NJ, looks like a topo map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 mt holly thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: mt holly thoughts Looks like the one wildcard location could be Chester/Berks Co. elevations and perhaps extreme northern MontCo. HRRR shows a battle in that area when the precip. rates are the greatest. 18z RGEM does the same thing between 6z-10z for that area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Here's the "coldest" hourly panel from the 18z RGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 39/30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 37/30.. shocked im down that low under cloud cover.. Been slowly falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 37/30.. shocked im down that low under cloud cover.. Been slowly falling. Congrats you are two degrees cooler than MQS. 38/28 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM just got a good bit colder for tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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