tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Be interesting to see there take on what happens after week 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 h5 week 1 ---wpo/-epo/-pna/neutral ao/-nao/ below normal hgts, flow from Washington week 2 -wpo/neutral epo/neutral pna/-ao/-enao/ below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 3 +++++epo/+ao/neutral nao/+pna/abv normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 4 -epo/+pna/neutral ao/+nao/normal hgts/ flow from US/Canada border week 5 -epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 6 -epo/-enao/+ao/+pna/ normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border a good amount of split flow with southern stream noise in these weeklies. Week 3 by far looks warmest at h5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 going off 850s, these would be my 2m temp guesses week 1 below week 2 below week 3 above week 4 near normal week 5 near normal week 6 near normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 In the totally fwiw category looking at the h5 off of ttidbits week 3 would be toasty on the cfs2 also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 temps week 1 0 week 2 -4 week 3 0 week 4 0 week 5 +1 week 6 0 precip week 1 abv week 2 abv week 3 normal week 4 normal week 5 normal week 6 slightly below Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 fwiw, that week 3 would go against the MJO outlook currently. It should be in colder phases at that point. But as we have been saying, the MJO doesn't rule always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: temps week 1 0 week 2 -4 week 3 0 week 4 0 week 5 +1 week 6 0 precip week 1 abv week 2 abv week 3 normal week 4 normal week 5 normal week 6 slightly below Not awful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 11 hours ago, tombo82685 said: fwiw, that week 3 would go against the MJO outlook currently. It should be in colder phases at that point. But as we have been saying, the MJO doesn't rule always. This sounds like the expression I heard thousands of times growing, so everybody is jumping off the bridge, you are going to do it too? The Canadian Weeklies are following suit. BTW given the 500mb flow the zeroes week 3 & 4 make as much logical sense as the above normal temps with flow out of Canada in some of the November weeklies. Canadian Weeklies... Temps Week 1....below (first time in a lonnnnnng time) Week 2....normal Week 3....above Week 4....above Pcpn Week 1....above Week 2....normal Week 3....normal Week 4....normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: This sounds like the expression I heard thousands of times growing, so everybody is jumping off the bridge, you are going to do it too? The Canadian Weeklies are following suit. BTW given the 500mb flow the zeroes week 3 & 4 make as much logical sense as the above normal temps with flow out of Canada in some of the November weeklies. Canadian Weeklies... Temps Week 1....below (first time in a lonnnnnng time) Week 2....normal Week 3....above Week 4....above Pcpn Week 1....above Week 2....normal Week 3....normal Week 4....normal Looking at the daily h5 look for that week. There are a couple cool shots that come into the east, but it has a Pacific flow to it. If that look continues, almost expect that to warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 while we always post the weeklies on here. You really gotta take these outside week 2 for a grain of salt. Just look back and see how much they change from run to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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