Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 CFS2, Temps Week 1....+5F Week 2.....0F Week 3.....-3F Week 4....+2F Pcpn Week 1...wet Week 2...normal Weeks 3 & 4...dry 500mb, pretty stout -epo ridge/cross polar flow crushes Canada and into lower 48, retrogression of pattern by week 4 if right would be warmer than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 That would be 3rd straight year of grinchmas. With tropical forcing though, it would look colder to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: That would be 3rd straight year of grinchmas. With tropical forcing though, it would look colder to me I give 2nd half of week 2 as much credence as week 4 (not much). They all collapse the mjo. So you could have the best of both worlds, wave 1 nullifies warm phases of the mjo and then mjo gets to do its thing in colder phases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: I give 2nd half of week 2 as much credence as week 4 (not much). They all collapse the mjo. So you could have the best of both worlds, wave 1 nullifies warm phases of the mjo and then mjo gets to do its thing in colder phases. I give the cfs MJO forecast, which I believe is pulled off the gfs about as much love as 70 degree dews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 h5 week 1 -nao/+ao/+epo/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from tx week 2 -epo/-ao/-nao/-pna/ below normal hgts, flow from Montana week 3 -enao/-epo/-ao/neutral pna/normal hgts, flow from montana week 4 -nao/neutral ao/+epo/+pna/ below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 5 -ao/neutral nao/-epo/+pna, normal hgts, flow from montana week 6 +pna/-nao/-ao/-epo/normal hgts, flow from montana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 6 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I give the cfs MJO forecast, which I believe is pulled off the gfs about as much love as 70 degree dews OTOH, this 850mb departure yesterday produced a one degree below normal day in PHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 just going off 850 temps this is would I would guess for the weeks week 1 abv, week 2 below, week 3 below, week 4 below, week 5 around normal maybe bias to colder, week 6 below Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Really don't see any issue with the weeklies. High lat blocking continues to be main theme. Would like to see a better pna signature, going to be times where se ridge will show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: h5 week 1 -nao/+ao/+epo/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from tx week 2 -epo/-ao/-nao/-pna/ below normal hgts, flow from Montana week 3 -enao/-epo/-ao/neutral pna/normal hgts, flow from montana week 4 -nao/neutral ao/+epo/+pna/ below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 5 -ao/neutral nao/-epo/+pna, normal hgts, flow from montana week 6 +pna/-nao/-ao/-epo/normal hgts, flow from montana 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 temps week 1 +5 week 2 -1 week 3 -2 week 4 -1 week 5 0 week 6 -1 precip week 1 way above(duh) week 2 slightly above week 3 normal to slightly above week 4 normal week 5 normal week 6 normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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