December Private Professional Met Discussions

[chescowx]

From JB at WeatherBell from this AM

"The 6-10 is cold, it gets colder again in the 10-15, but there is a warm up on day 10 in the middle and that could be our first storm that can not get all the way to the lakes, but instead runs to the Ohio valley and is forced to be handed off further south cause of the western atlantic trough. Just like early this week I kept pounding away at the overwarmed period for this upcoming weekend. ( One more reminder in case you forgot.. 12z Dec 2 from days out was supposed to look like this)  would look for that system that is in the southwest to kick out and then shear out through the mid-atlantic states. Instead of a storm running up to the lakes, we get a flatter wave with ice and snow down to I70 in the plains and perhaps all the way to the east coast when that comes out. Lets see if we can pick that out too...But the bottom line is using overall methods certainly whipped the models for yet another weekend ( next weekend) and now lets see if we can play with the period around day 10 to see if using the large scale ideas can help"

[chescowx]

Per JB this AM

"Wow, that is one cold 8-14, in fact the coldest since December of 2013!"

[chescowx]

Joe B's view of the latest Euro Weeklies

"The model roars out of the box with the cold, then fades it. It does maintain a lot of high latitude positives, but it seems to fade to a confused look in the longer range, biased warm. I do not buy it. I think it will grow milder (it has to because December 5-20 is so cold), but I think the trough is back in the East again by January 1. That being said, it has nothing more than a hint of it, though it ends with negative NAO look."

[chescowx]

JB post after the Euro run today...

"First of all the Sunday night and Monday system is gaining more snow making prominence on the Euro. By Monday morning, that is about as close to I-70 and north as one can get for a call from Tuesday. And lo and behold we have a low cutting under the block and causing more interior northeast snow, and effectively what was supposed to be the big southerly surge in front of monster storm pulling up in the lakes So by Thursday morning this is a pretty good amount of snow for the first week of December. So I think we could fill into the coast. The arctic front pushes and the energy coming around forms a storm that runs to the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air comes in. Why not. How many a week ago thought this situation Sunday night into Monday and the system out of the southwest had a shot at all this. Yes I see the threat in the 10-15.. It may be there. But don't miss what could be a lot of challenge for snow lovers before. Good way to get a December to Remember as I think it will be, started. Heh at least the chance is there."

[chescowx]

From JB at WeatherBell

"please reference that with my plea to cherish the challenge of this pattern.. I am not talking about snow in your back yard ( actually in this I am) I am talking about the fun in trying to sort out the physical realities of pattern where a lot of things are competing .I am very concerned that the wave on the arctic front will be the real deal to put snow down all the way to the Ohio river and the east coast Jersey north. The emperor of the north is coming and he likes his white carpet laid down before him. Notes and asides. I am hearing alot of grumbling about the warmup day 8/9 in the east ( then the cold comes again, assuming it left, or put it this way, tries to leave) Now anyone remember the Christmas outbreak in 1980? Was drizzling in NYC 3 days later. Same thing in 1983! Or how about the blizzard of 96... Son of Blizzard a week later turned to rain on the east coast ( dumped 3-4 feet in Susquehanna valley) and then came the storm the following weekend that caused the Susquehanna 96 flood, cause it wiped out the snow cover on Saturday. And 2009... the day after Christmas snow was wiped out That was the greatest gloom and doom turned great winter I ever saw, as the winters over crowd was still screaming it a week before snowmageddon started as the GFS ensembles were feeble in mid Jan. And 2013... 70s in NYC a few days before Christmas. Heck Super bowl Sunday got to 50, then 15-25 inches of snow from 2 storms with in 5 days. Now none of that means a hill of beans as far as this pattern but it does mean something about simply using your memory to say, wait a minute maybe there is more to this than meets the eye. After all if it was as it appears given whichever idea you choose to follow and there was no challenge what fun is that. You know what's interesting about at least the cold coming now? Well you guys know I love the weather, but you can also sense I love sports and I am very interested in the political process. Its like the trifecta watching a lot of this for me as far as the comfort one takes that maybe the answer is not what all the experts say. For whatever you or I wish to say, at the very least, the cold did get to our side of the pole, right? Where was that idea 10 days ago, yet alone longer"

 

[chescowx]

Per Steve at NJ/PA weather tweet - "as far as Sunday night into Monday, I'm rather concerned the GFS/NAM is off on this 500mb shortwave"

and a funny tweet from DT at Wxrisk "I would not use the 12z OP Friday GFS to wipe the Shxx off of my ass....so many obvious flaws in it - it's absurd"

[chescowx]

from Mr. Bastardi this AM - he can always find a way to keep the NE snow geese engaged!

"The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle.  For the I-95 show goose its still a case of triumph or tragedy. How can you triumph?

Wave with pre arctic shot dumps some snow, warm advection system dumps snow and ice and the warm sector stays just offshore. Then the front pushes through with another wave but further east than models have. .You go from next to no snow to a bonanza. 200 miles west its a meltdown.

Where do I stand? In the middle. I am suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 that I was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though.

Its a heck of a pattern...and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on.

Of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish."

[chescowx]

Steve D from NYNJPA Weather is a little more aggressive than the current NWS forecast his reasoning is below. He is going with 2 to 4 for PHL area / 3 to 6 NW burbs and 4 to 8 ABE and north

"The National Weather Service is a bit lower than me, but not by much.  The biggest difference is over NW NJ as they have a change over from snow to sleet much faster.  I don’t.  That’s pretty much the difference.  I’m using the ECMWF for the rate of change at 850 MB  while they are using the GFS.  So we’ll see how that plays out. As I have been stating, I suspect this storm will over perform in snowfall than what some may be thinking and as such, I’m working with that idea in the forecast.  I am pretty confident that I get the low ends of the forecast, the question is whether that over performance shows up to hit the high ends of the forecast.  We’ll now we see how this unfolds tonight."

[chescowx]

From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th"

"The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"

[chescowx]

Everyone's favorite MET For hire - JB on models this PM

"So the point here is I look at that and do not see that as warm. Given other analogs to what has been going on to 1985, I look at that and say look out. The model is likely feeding back on the cold any way. The other problem is that this being an ensemble may not be right about the ridging over Greenland. The operational Euro and the Control are developing a powerful ridge over Greenland in the day 10-15 period This implies the threat of a severe eastern storm and wicked cold anyway during that time and that is something i am starting to look at. I have not been mouthing off much about snow this year cause I have not been impressed in the NE corridor yet. The control is brutal in the 10-15 and sure sees the snow"

[Rainshadow]