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11/21 Weeklies: Will the SE ridge spoil the holidays?


Mitchg
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Actualish ( figures differ between weeklies and the 0-15 day EPS)

Week 1  -2

Week 2 +2, SE ridge dominant, - NAO/AO, - PNA, EPO trending toward +, above normal precip due to cutters

Guesses 

Week 3 +1 SE ridge hanging on, - NAO/AO, nuetral PNA and EPO, near normal precipitation 

Week 4  0 - NAO/AO, weak + PNA, neutral EPO, near normal precipitation

Week 5 -1 - NAO/AO, + PNA, - EPO, slightly below normal precipitation 

Week 6 -1

Once again the guess kicks the can a little further down the road. 

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CFS2 weeklies

Temps

Week 1....-5F

Week 2....0F

Week 3....+3F

Week 4....0F

 

Pcpn 

Week 1....Dry

Weeks 2 thru 4....Wet.

The 500mb for week 4 looks good -epo / -nao.  Just looking at where the mjo/gwo is heading, there is some support for it. Yeah if the mjo as a force dies vs progressing and if the gwo's spiral stops heading toward a nina state, it could fail. 

 

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Here are the parallel weeklies which will be upgraded tomorrow to the main weeklies

h5

week 1 -nao/-ao/-pna-+epo/ below normal hgts

week 2 +epo/-pna/-nao/neutral ao/ below normal hgts

week 3 -epo/-nao/-ao/-pna/ below normal hgts

week 4 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao/ below normal hgts

 

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other weeklies

h5

week 1 -pna/-ao/-nao/+epo/ below normal hgts

week 2  -pna/neutral ao/-nao/+epo/ below normal hgts

week 3 +pna/-epo/-ao/-nao/ below normal hgts

week 4 -epo/-ao/-enao/+pna/below normal hgts

week 5 -ao/-epo/-enao/+pna/ abv normal hgts due to more of a zonal look

week 6 +epo/neutral pna/-enao/-ao/ abv normal hgts due to zonal flow

They look fine to me. Don't really see any big torches or huge cold outbreaks. Probably see 2m temps in the +2 to -2 range outside of this week.

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5 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

A 0 four weeks from now is doable unlike the next two weeks. I'd say a step backward from Thursday. Gotta get the PNA +. However, snowfall about the same or slightly higher inland, 

am I missing something here?? This looks about the same or even a little better in terms of temps. 

thursday's weeklies

week 1 -2

week 2 +1

week 3 +2

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

today's weeklies

week 1 -4

week 2 +1

week 3 0

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

am I missing something here

thursday's weeklies

week 1 -2

week 2 +1

week 3 +2

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

today's weeklies

week 1 -4

week 2 +1

week 3 0

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

A 0 four weeks from now is doable unlike the next two weeks. I'd say a step backward from Thursday. Gotta get the PNA +. However, snowfall about the same or slightly higher inland. I was looking more at 500 mb and the PNA. 

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Just now, Mitchg said:

A 0 four weeks from now is doable unlike the next two weeks. I'd say a step backward from Thursday. Gotta get the PNA +. However, snowfall about the same or slightly higher inland. I was looking more at 500 mb and the PNA. 

It's a split flow type of pattern from what I saw. You have a ridge in western Canada, but then a little bit of a trough in the southwest with the southern stream 

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