Feb Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 November just being November. As am old timer i never expect anything in November. Around these parts winter doesn't really get going until after Christmas really. Anything before is gravy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 hours ago, Feb said: November just being November. As am old timer i never expect anything in November. Around these parts winter doesn't really get going until after Christmas really. Anything before is gravy. Yup. Until December 5th became December 5th, December had been a mish mosh of a wintry potpourri (at best) until maybe the last third of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 On 11/14/2016 at 7:02 PM, tombo82685 said: Looks like MJO gets through phase 8 and maybe phase 1 before croaking. The Roundy plots look like a big Kelvin wave or standing wave signal that is going to give a false representation of a remerging MJO. Welp, looks like I was wrong on this one. Be interesting to see how this plays out. The week 2 and 3 forecast would be warm phases of MJO for us, assuming this is the driving force of pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 So either we'll go into the ice box or go full torch. Seems reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 hours ago, PreserveJon said: So either we'll go into the ice box or go full torch. Seems reasonable. Teleconnection (GEFS) skill disappears by day 11, sooner with the NAO. So, I am more interested with anything in the great beyond moving forward in time and not looking great/awful at week 4. I know this sounds like a broken record, but based on the MJO if real and where the GWO is (the latter comes from Al M.), the second half of December has more promise than the first half relative to climo normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTNwatcher Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Test. Uh oh. Hope it's multiple choice , I'm a little behind..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 11 minutes ago, TTNwatcher said: Uh oh. Hope it's multiple choice , I'm a little behind..... Lol. I just had to make a "post" to split out some of the fall discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Teleconnection (GEFS) skill disappears by day 11, sooner with the NAO. So, I am more interested with anything in the great beyond moving forward in time and not looking great/awful at week 4. I know this sounds like a broken record, but based on the MJO if real and where the GWO is (the latter comes from Al M.), the second half of December has more promise than the first half relative to climo normal. I should of stayed with my first post a couple weeks back on the mjo in warm phases for early December, cause that is looking good right now. Obviously the MJO doesn't rule the roast and it depends on what amplitude the wave gets to for how strong the impacts may be. It's going to be a battle though because you have some blocking signals showing up. How strong if at all is the nao block? Does the pac jet turn off or weaken. If we don't get that nao and the pac jet remains the same, it could be a warmer period. The weeklies evolution looks good to me, inline with the mjo of colder weather by mid December. It wouldn't shock me if models get warmer for the start of December as they are starting to catch on that this MJO wave isn't going to die in phase 1, a colder phase. If we get the warmer phases of the mjo and a stout -nao, the nao may trump the mjo and you stay near normal or slightly below. Just like last year when you had mjo phases but the enso nino forcing was so strong it over-rided everything. It's just a waiting game really to see if these nao forecasts are correct. So basically what I'm saying, is I dunno lol. Just throwing ideas against the wall and seeing if anything sticks. It wouldn't shock me if we stay around normal into the first week of december then get a warmer period as a deep trof goes into the west. Then by mid december that comes east and starts off the colder period. Then again you could get a powerful -nao block, combined with -ao, and pac jet relaxes and we start seeing sustained cold and wintry threats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Tom, I read your last sentence as wintry "treats". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 18 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Tom, I read your last sentence as wintry "treats". It's only a treat if it occurs on dec 5th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 This is why you take the weeklies with a grain of salt esp after week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 granted this is way out in time, and most likely won't happen, but what a pattern on the 18z gefs with active storm track and cold 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: granted this is way out in time, and most likely won't happen, but what a pattern on the 18z gefs with active storm track and cold Snowfall on the members went bonkers as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 That is quite the pattern set up on the 18z GFS. Would be nice to get an early start to winter this year instead of a later one like last few winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Ensembles showing a SE ridge now for the first week of December. Not a shocker, but would expect a cutter or semi-cutter out of the look with the lowest heights in the west. - NAO may keep it from cutting all the way into Canada. Main key is the Pacific reshuffle is moving ahead in time so the + PNA comes into play as well which means more cold into the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 22 minutes ago, Mitchg said: Ensembles showing a SE ridge now for the first week of December. Not a shocker, but would expect a cutter or semi-cutter out of the look with the lowest heights in the west. - NAO may keep it from cutting all the way into Canada. Main key is the Pacific reshuffle is moving ahead in time so the + PNA comes into play as well which means more cold into the US. given the mjo progress the se ridge makes sense with the warmer phases of the mjo towards dec 1st. Just gotta see how strong blocking is to fight it off. Even so, all colder patterns here usually start off with a week or so of a trough out west then each storm drags the cold further east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: given the mjo progress the se ridge makes sense with the warmer phases of the mjo towards dec 1st. Just gotta see how strong blocking is to fight it off. Even so, all colder patterns here usually start off with a week or so of a trough out west then each storm drags the cold further east. Agree, that is the most likely outcome now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Mitchg said: Agree, that is the most likely outcome now. One thing is for sure, the gfs is doing pretty bad with its nao forecasts. Way to negative with its forecasts and when that time gets near the -nao look weakens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: One thing is for sure, the gfs is doing pretty bad with its nao forecasts. Way to negative with its forecasts and when that time gets near the -nao look weakens. A day 14 cor of 0.0586 is awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Unfortunately the NAO looks to return to normal around December 1. Euro and GFS are advertising a lakes cutter in the same period. Weakening La Nina throws long range forecasting into uncertainty. May be more chances for anomalous events. Should note that the AO looks to be pretty negative during the same period and as Ray has preached, you don't always need a negative NAO for a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 9 minutes ago, Harbourton said: Unfortunately the NAO looks to return to normal around December 1. Euro and GFS are advertising a lakes cutter in the same period. Weakening La Nina throws long range forecasting into uncertainty. May be more chances for anomalous events. I'm not sure if it's officially a la nina? If so it's very borderline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 looking down the road, most of the ensembles show a deep trof coming into the west coast with the potential for a pretty powerful system entering the lower plains. Odds favor this to cut, but if a -nao does come true, this could alter that. After that the eps and gefs like a -pna type pattern post day 11, which would favor a se ridge and probably warmer conditions. The EPS in the long term seem to just love to overdo the western trof and eastern ridge in the 11-15 day period. I remember a couple weeks back I commented on how the EPS had a big se ridge for this period in time, and well that failed. Given how the gefs are close with it, could be right this time. Though if again there is any sort of -nao it could help keep that at bay. If not, combined with mjo in warmer phases it would favor a warmer period with some cold intrusions as bulk of the cold stays out in the plains and west. The GEPS go all ham on a +pna development which would bring in colder air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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