Office Research Unoffical Winter Outlook

[Mitchg]

Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. 

This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. 

Factors 

- Drought and warm October 

- This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. 

- SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific 

- Warm water this spring Near Greenland 

- Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO 

- Weak PV

- QBO state 

- Near Solar minimum 

Potential expectations 

- Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December

- Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well 

- Expected tendency toward a -EPO

- + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events 

- Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) 

- Neutral PDO

- More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow 

- slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. 

Analogs 

•54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14.

 

 

 

[pawxnut]

Very good forecast close to Hurricane;s outlook.

[Rainshadow]

8 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. 

This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. 

Factors 

- Drought and warm October 

- This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. 

- SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific 

- Warm water this spring Near Greenland 

- Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO 

- Weak PV

- QBO state 

- Near Solar minimum 

Potential expectations 

- Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December

- Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well 

- Expected tendency toward a -EPO

- + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events 

- Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) 

- Neutral PDO

- More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow 

- slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. 

Analogs 

•54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14.

 

 

 

Very good Mitch, good luck!

[Mitchg]

8 minutes ago, pawxnut said:

Very good forecast close to Hurricane;s outlook.

Thanks! Not much spread in the forecasts even though I saw he had different analogs. 

[colonel_kurtz]

nice work Mitch!

[Parsley]

Thanks Mitch. 

[PreserveJon]

I'd be thrilled if this were to verify.  Thanks for the good news on a Friday PM.

[snowlurker]

Thanks Mitch!

[Chubbs]

Thanks Mitch. Gutsy - we've had one barely below normal month this year ( May -0.9).

[Mitchg]

For reference, the forecast I did last winter at this time for December was already adjusted to greater than +5. At least the December adjustment this year only gets it to 0. 

[tombo82685]

Why are you adjusting dec, when it's not even December yet alone over with?

[DelcoWx]

On 11/18/2016 at 1:38 PM, Mitchg said:

Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. 

This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. 

Factors 

- Drought and warm October 

- This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. 

- SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific 

- Warm water this spring Near Greenland 

- Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO 

- Weak PV

- QBO state 

- Near Solar minimum 

Potential expectations 

- Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December

- Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well 

- Expected tendency toward a -EPO

- + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events 

- Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) 

- Neutral PDO

- More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow 

- slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. 

Analogs 

•54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14.

 

 

 

Thanks, Mitch!

[Mitchg]

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Why are you adjusting dec, when it's not even December yet alone over with?

Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. 

[tombo82685]

26 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. 

That makes sense then if you have to present this. 

[pawxnut]

1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. 

s zero departure is really a -2 because most months are running 2 above the averages.

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. 

By the 7th (he saaaaayyyyys) it should become apparent whether or not the colder pattern materializes.  By then we should be within 10 days of it.  Of course if/when it ends, well that's another story.