Mitchg Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. Factors - Drought and warm October - This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. - SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific - Warm water this spring Near Greenland - Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO - Weak PV - QBO state - Near Solar minimum Potential expectations - Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December - Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well - Expected tendency toward a -EPO - + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events - Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) - Neutral PDO - More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow - slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. Analogs •54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxnut Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Very good forecast close to Hurricane;s outlook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, Mitchg said: Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. Factors - Drought and warm October - This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. - SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific - Warm water this spring Near Greenland - Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO - Weak PV - QBO state - Near Solar minimum Potential expectations - Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December - Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well - Expected tendency toward a -EPO - + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events - Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) - Neutral PDO - More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow - slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. Analogs •54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14. Very good Mitch, good luck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, pawxnut said: Very good forecast close to Hurricane;s outlook. Thanks! Not much spread in the forecasts even though I saw he had different analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 nice work Mitch! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Thanks Mitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 I'd be thrilled if this were to verify. Thanks for the good news on a Friday PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Thanks Mitch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 18, 2016 Report Share Posted November 18, 2016 Thanks Mitch. Gutsy - we've had one barely below normal month this year ( May -0.9). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 For reference, the forecast I did last winter at this time for December was already adjusted to greater than +5. At least the December adjustment this year only gets it to 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Why are you adjusting dec, when it's not even December yet alone over with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DelcoWx Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 On 11/18/2016 at 1:38 PM, Mitchg said: Unlike Tony &Tom who use the luck of the club to derive a snowfall, I looked through about a dozen factors. Each of the factors carried a certain weight and the calculations were more painful than normal this year. Here is the breakdown. This is not a NWS forecast. Please refer to the CPC equal chances for the offical NWS forecast. Factors - Drought and warm October - This forecast did not use any seasonal model guidance that has been very very poor the last few years. - SST anomalies feature a warm pool off of the southern AK coast but a decreasing + PDO. A weak central and east based La-niña along with warmer waters in the western tropical Pacific - Warm water this spring Near Greenland - Rapid Siberian snowcover advancement in October, October AO - Weak PV - QBO state - Near Solar minimum Potential expectations - Weak PV in place with breakdown and SSW likely in December - Analogs focus on weak La-niña after a El-niño with some wiggle room, favor -AO as well - Expected tendency toward a -EPO - + NAO expected tendency, more smaller events - Lots of mixing and ice events with cutting lows due to SE ridge tendency and blocking ( Tony can come back and work the Y shifts during the ice events) - Neutral PDO - More uncertainty with snowfall analogs ranged from 12 to 68 inches of snow - slightly below normal temperatures for most of winter, coldest December into January and March compared to normal. February likely warmer than analogs. Analogs •54-55, 54-55,54-55 64-65, 70-71, 66-67,83-84, 83-84,92-93,95-96,10-11,13-14. Thanks, Mitch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Why are you adjusting dec, when it's not even December yet alone over with? Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, Mitchg said: Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. That makes sense then if you have to present this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxnut Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Mitchg said: Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. s zero departure is really a -2 because most months are running 2 above the averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Mitchg said: Hard to get a -2 when the first week is +5ish. The last three weeks would have to average -7ish. Anyway it's updated because we still have a few groups to present this at. Hard to go -2 the next presentation is on the 7th when it has been really warm for the first week. A 0 still implies a colder than average Dec 10-31st. By the 7th (he saaaaayyyyys) it should become apparent whether or not the colder pattern materializes. By then we should be within 10 days of it. Of course if/when it ends, well that's another story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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