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11/17 weeklies, It's all about the Pacific


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h5

week 1 +epo/-pna/-nao/-ao/ below normal hgts, flow from northern california

week 2 -nao/neutral pna/+epo/-ao/normal hgts, flow from northern california

week 3 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao/normal hgts, flow from northern washington

week 4 -epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 5 -epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/below normal hgts, flow from northern Washington

week 6 -enao/-ao/+pna/-epo/below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

from week 3 on the 850 temp anoms are way below normal... I would say another step up improvement from Monday. One thing too, the PV comes over to this side of the globe 

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Look at tombo's transition map on the GEFS as well. The weeklies have it later but have the same process to get the critical +PNA. PV moving over to our side of the globe with a SSW in December could spell a really cold period holidays and The first half of JAN. Nice to see the weeklies give credence to the informal winter outlook I put together for our office. Will post it tomorrow. Of course given the weeklies nature we're due for two steps backward on Monday. 

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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

h5

week 1 +epo/-pna/-nao/-ao/ below normal hgts, flow from northern california

week 2 -nao/neutral pna/+epo/-ao/normal hgts, flow from northern california

week 3 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao/normal hgts, flow from northern washington

week 4 -epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 5 -epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/below normal hgts, flow from northern Washington

week 6 -enao/-ao/+pna/-epo/below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

from week 3 on the 850 temp anoms are way below normal... I would say another step up improvement from Monday. One thing too, the PV comes over to this side of the globe 

 

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