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Potential Winter Storm Threats


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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That euro run was a pretty big outlier in the EPS members. mainly <.5 on the eps mean from LV south to i95. So we shall see what tonight's run brings or doesn't bring. 

GEFS for AVP (only one we can do "north and west") had 1.8",  3.4" for the op.  I am assuming this is straight 10:1.

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I would also keep an eye on that storm slated for around Thanksgiving, but most likely after. With a good block in place, there should be a nice sprawling high over the region. The question becomes what type of airmass will be in place and what track does the low take. 

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Definitely gotta watch Sunday. We just need to clear that front and we would be on the good side of the storm with cold air. Like I said above, the 0z euro had a more intense storm but it developed it right over us. Thus it took longer for the cold air to inflitrate. If we can get an earlier development but further east and south, it would definitely be more interesting. 

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

 

I've been out of the loop, just starting to get back into winter mode, but what is the "upgraded EURO"? 

Not sure if you were asking how much it had or what it actually is. The euro is due for another upgrade on nov 22. Right now it's the parallel euro until nov 22nd when it becomes operational. 

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26 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Eclectic combination of ec & ggem in one (slower) camp and gfs & ukmet (progressive) in the other. 

Anyway, here is the 12z/15th ggem snow accumulation.

 

The euro is close to that maybe a bit further east. Just need that low to develop a little further east and south. Most of PA gets crushed. most of the accumulating snow is west of downingtown-ptw-abe-stroudsburg

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16 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Eclectic combination of ec & ggem in one (slower) camp and gfs & ukmet (progressive) in the other. 

Anyway, here is the 12z/15th ggem snow accumulation.

SN_000-240_0000.gif

While the Euro & GGEM and Ukmet/GFS/MF ARPEGE split continued with the night run,  the GGEM snowfall map took a big hit down.

SN_000-240_0000.gif

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

While the Euro & GGEM and Ukmet/GFS/MF ARPEGE split continued with the night run,  the GGEM snowfall map took a big hit down.

 

Yea the euro's did too, not nearly as aggressive with snowfall. It's mainly located in the mtns out in western pa and northern tier. The eps as still pretty decent for the Poconos, but it has trended downward. Plce to be for this is in the Laurels. 

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