tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Wanted to make a new thread just for potential winter storm events outside 5 days. I don't want to clog up the Long range thread that isn't pattern related. So any potential wintry threats outside 5 days go in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 So this was the 12z euro map for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 That euro run was a pretty big outlier in the EPS members. mainly <.5 on the eps mean from LV south to i95. So we shall see what tonight's run brings or doesn't bring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That euro run was a pretty big outlier in the EPS members. mainly <.5 on the eps mean from LV south to i95. So we shall see what tonight's run brings or doesn't bring. GEFS for AVP (only one we can do "north and west") had 1.8", 3.4" for the op. I am assuming this is straight 10:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 the upgrade Euro shows a widespread 1-3" from LV south, south of 195 in nj and west of nj coast by about 15 miles and from ilg north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 I would also keep an eye on that storm slated for around Thanksgiving, but most likely after. With a good block in place, there should be a nice sprawling high over the region. The question becomes what type of airmass will be in place and what track does the low take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro at 0z run neg titls the low a little to much thus it traverses right over the area slowing cold air intrusion. Snow is mainly from LNS on westward. Pocs get 1-2". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 EPS mean snowfall though is up for early next week. Although member 51 is bloated, without it the totals would be a notch less. MPO 2-3 K12N 1-2 NW of PHL .5 Everyone else .1-.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Definitely gotta watch Sunday. We just need to clear that front and we would be on the good side of the storm with cold air. Like I said above, the 0z euro had a more intense storm but it developed it right over us. Thus it took longer for the cold air to inflitrate. If we can get an earlier development but further east and south, it would definitely be more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Tom, the 00z GGEM would be a good scenario. Closes off farther S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: the upgrade Euro shows a widespread 1-3" from LV south, south of 195 in nj and west of nj coast by about 15 miles and from ilg north. I've been out of the loop, just starting to get back into winter mode, but what is the "upgraded EURO"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 53 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I've been out of the loop, just starting to get back into winter mode, but what is the "upgraded EURO"? 7- MPO 2- RDG 1- PHL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: I've been out of the loop, just starting to get back into winter mode, but what is the "upgraded EURO"? Not sure if you were asking how much it had or what it actually is. The euro is due for another upgrade on nov 22. Right now it's the parallel euro until nov 22nd when it becomes operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Eclectic combination of ec & ggem in one (slower) camp and gfs & ukmet (progressive) in the other. Anyway, here is the 12z/15th ggem snow accumulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 26 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Eclectic combination of ec & ggem in one (slower) camp and gfs & ukmet (progressive) in the other. Anyway, here is the 12z/15th ggem snow accumulation. The euro is close to that maybe a bit further east. Just need that low to develop a little further east and south. Most of PA gets crushed. most of the accumulating snow is west of downingtown-ptw-abe-stroudsburg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Even on the less aggressive GFS: snow showers and squalls for most of the region. Steep lapse rates plus winds off the warm lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 EPS snow mean about the same as 0z run as Mitch alluded to this morning. nw burbs and LV .5-1", Pocs 2-2.5" phl, immediate burbs, and rest of the area less than .5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 12z euro snow map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 euro parallel gets the 1" to oxford-bryn mawr-dyl. 2" line downingtown-ptw-perkasie-mmu. 2-3 in LV and Berks. Once over blue mtn it's 5-10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 16 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Eclectic combination of ec & ggem in one (slower) camp and gfs & ukmet (progressive) in the other. Anyway, here is the 12z/15th ggem snow accumulation. While the Euro & GGEM and Ukmet/GFS/MF ARPEGE split continued with the night run, the GGEM snowfall map took a big hit down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 Modeling looks a little warmer today early next week. Maybe some Thanksgiving freezing rain or mix NW? Just what we are not thankful for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: While the Euro & GGEM and Ukmet/GFS/MF ARPEGE split continued with the night run, the GGEM snowfall map took a big hit down. Yea the euro's did too, not nearly as aggressive with snowfall. It's mainly located in the mtns out in western pa and northern tier. The eps as still pretty decent for the Poconos, but it has trended downward. Plce to be for this is in the Laurels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 neat map... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 lol that would be a thing of beauty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 EPS have a 3" mean for mpo sunday-monday. They actually have some measurable nw of philly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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