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Scary Halloween Weeklies...Trick or Treat?


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13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

CFS2

Temps:

Week 1....+5F

Week 2....+3F

Week 3....+1F

Week 4....+2F

 

Pcpn...normal weeks 1 thru 3 and wet week 4.

 

500mb...positive epo compensates for higher heights over Canada?  More cold aloft than near surface?

probably what I was talking about last week with GOA low and just flooding canada with pacific air. Even though we have below normal hgts, there is just no cold air to tap into. 

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New Guesses based off of 500 mb. Thirty steps backward tonight. EPO closer to neutral, Still -NAO but a much stronger SE ridge for the first two weeks of December. Week 5 flow is straight from PAC. --PNA for week 5. 

Week 3 -1

Week 4 0

Week 5 +4

Week 6 +2

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h5

week 1 +epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna/slightly abv normal hgts

week 2 -ao/+nao/+epo/+pna/well below normal hgts, though thats cause of a closed low or what not. PAC air influence, so not much cold air in my eyes

week 3 -epo/+pna/-ao/-enao/well below normal hgts. This looks to be legit below normal temps, flow from Canada and it isn't dominated with PAC air

week 4 -epo/neutral pna/-enao/-ao//normal hgts

week 5 -epo/-ao/neutral nao/-pna/normal hgts, somewhat of se ridge, but I would think that would trend a little stronger with h5 look of more trof out west, PAC air influence

week 6 -epo/-pna/-enao, big scandanavian ridge/-ao/abv normal hgts more of a se ridge in relation to more of a trof out west, pac flow

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

h5

week 1 +epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna/slightly abv normal hgts

week 2 -ao/+nao/+epo/+pna/well below normal hgts, though thats cause of a closed low or what not. PAC air influence, so not much cold air in my eyes

week 3 -epo/+pna/-ao/-enao/well below normal hgts. This looks to be legit below normal temps, flow from Canada and it isn't dominated with PAC air

week 4 -epo/neutral pna/-enao/-ao//normal hgts

week 5 -epo/-ao/neutral nao/-pna/normal hgts, somewhat of se ridge, but I would think that would trend a little stronger with h5 look of more trof out west, PAC air influence

week 6 -epo/-pna/-enao, big scandanavian ridge/-ao/abv normal hgts more of a se ridge in relation to more of a trof out west 

Weatherbell December forecast doesn't look so good now. 

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12 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Weatherbell December forecast doesn't look so good now. 

Lol relax, it's a week 5 and 6 forecast, one that just did a complete 180 from 4 days ago. If what is being shown does occur, than so be it, nothing you can do about it.

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol relax, it's a week 5 and 6 forecast, one that just did a complete 180 from 4 days ago. If what is being shown does occur, than so be it, nothing you can do about it.

The winter outlook is presented several times with various agencies now, more so than when Tony was here. I would have liked a more solid signal to what I already completed. Maybe two heatmizers was a little overdone based on those temps. Would have thought cooler week 3 and then warmer week 5. 

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4 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

The winter outlook is presented several times with various agencies now, more so than when Tony was here. I would have liked a more solid signal to what I already completed. Maybe two heatmizers was a little overdone based on those temps. Would have thought cooler week 3 and then warmer week 5. 

it's a forecast thats a month away. It most likely will continue to evolve and change. You should know this better than anyone, so I'm not sure why you got all bent out of shape. 

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it's a forecast thats a month away. It most likely will continue to evolve and change. You should know this better than anyone, so I'm not sure why you got all bent out of shape. 

I think it's lingering from that awful 4th quarter and OT last night in Dallas. 

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

I think it's lingering from that awful 4th quarter and OT last night in Dallas. 

being honest though, it would not shock me if the cold waits till december or past that. Models always rush pattern changes. Once the pattern does change then you gotta fill Canada back up with cold. So we are looking at awhile in my eyes before we get some good cold. I'm not talking about a 3 day cold shot, more along the lines of a week plus.

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15 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

The winter outlook is presented several times with various agencies now, more so than when Tony was here. I would have liked a more solid signal to what I already completed. Maybe two heatmizers was a little overdone based on those temps. Would have thought cooler week 3 and then warmer week 5. 

Yea I thought week 3 would of been wamer, but those below normal hgts are probably representing some sort of cutoff or storminess. The flow, the more I looked at it was barely from Canada, not exactly "cold"

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11 hours ago, Mitchg said:

End of the weeklies is brutal zonal PAC flow. :heat miser:

Talking about weeks 3 & 4.  There have been 11 weeks (out of 43) that have averaged colder than normal this year in PHL.  Out of 22 potential chances for the Euro Weeklies to at the least nail that direction, they did only once.  The Mon CFS2 by comparison had 11 outlooks of colder than normal weather weeks 3 & 4 this year.  Only 3 of 9 week 3(s) were correct (It had our Augtober week at -3F.) and both negative week 4(s) were wrong.  This year they have not been that good past week 2.   

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