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10/24 Weeklies CFS2: We Need No Stinkin' Negatives

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:



Week 1....0F

Week 2....+5F

Week 3....+7F

Week 4....+2F



Week 1...Dry

Week 2....Normal

Week 3....Wet

Week 4....Dry

Positive EPO makes up for above normal heights in Canada?


would make sense with  position of big upper level low promoting Pacific air flooding country. High lat blocking can offset that but with wavelengths still not being that long it could lead to a warm period.

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week 1 --epo/+nao/-ao/-pna/ below normal hgts

week 2 -enao/-ao/neutral pna/+epo/abv normal hgts, zonal flow

week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo/ below normal hgts, some meridonal flow

week 4 -ao/-nao/+pna/neutral epo/ below normal hgts, some meridonal flow

week 5 neutral epo/-ao/-enao/+pna/normal hgts, mean trof over miss river, se ridge just off shore

week 6 -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna/below normal hgts

despite the below normal hgts, I don't expect deep negative values. While there is meridonal flow it's still not from a real cold source just yet. I will say though, the pattern looks pretty solid from mid nov on for something. 

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Overall slower to a good pattern, cold starts entering the CONUS in early December now compared to mid-late November on Thursday's weeklies. Wxbell Snowfall is up to 6 inches for the Poconos and a couple of inches for Philly, of course we're deeper into December now on the weeklies.  

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