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DROUGHT! What Is It Good For? Literally Absolutely Nothing!


Rainshadow
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13 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Congrats Tom on not being abnormally dry at home.

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I don't understand how this map is accurate, but then again, I don't know the exact method of measuring/calculating it. I haven't had any substantial rain since probably July, the ground is like concrete and the only reason my grass is semi healthy looking is because I'm watering it. I'm in the "normal" zone, and we have dry creek beds which normally have water flowing in them. I understand local conditions may vary, but I do question the accuracy of these types of maps. Growing up on a dairy farm in lower Bucks county, my Dad would always get these reports (not the map that we see today), but a text report indicating drought or normal and he would say he would say "it ain't dry here", or vice versa. That's my distorted perception kicking in, and sorry if I offended anyone with questioning the map.

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3 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I don't understand how this map is accurate, but then again, I don't know the exact method of measuring/calculating it. I haven't had any substantial rain since probably July, the ground is like concrete and the only reason my grass is semi healthy looking is because I'm watering it. I'm in the "normal" zone, and we have dry creek beds which normally have water flowing in them. I understand local conditions may vary, but I do question the accuracy of these types of maps. That's my distorted perception kicking in, and sorry if I offended anyone with questioning the map.

Well this isn't a ground water map like soil moisture. This is going off of reservoir, creeks and lake flow and storage. While this past month has been dry, beforehand it wasn't. While up north in New england they have been very dry since early spring and on. 

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40 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

well it starts Sunday and goes to Tuesday. Euro op was 1.5-4" of rain in that period

I dont know, I have been sold a wet bill of goods for so long, if we get half of that, I'd be surprised.

Heavier pcpn amounts past month GFS has been giving the Euro a run.  Of course it must be interesting to be living in the GGEM's world.  Everything is greener than green.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/rain/QPF/etsbis.G211RFCf24f72d31.png

 

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well this isn't a ground water map like soil moisture. This is going off of reservoir, creeks and lake flow and storage. While this past month has been dry, beforehand it wasn't. While up north in New england they have been very dry since early spring and on. 

Excellent point. I do mention two different things in my rant.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I dont know, I have been sold a wet bill of goods for so long, if we get half of that, I'd be surprised.

Heavier pcpn amounts past month GFS has been giving the Euro a run.  Of course it must be interesting to be living in the GGEM's world.  Everything is greener than green.

 

 

 

The 2-4" was an outlier among the EPS, but the EPS mean by 0z tuesday is .8 at phl right now. It's the best signal I have seen in probably 2-3 weeks for getting some widespread rains. 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

The 2-4" was an outlier among the EPS, but the EPS mean by 0z tuesday is .8 at phl right now. It's the best signal I have seen in probably 2-3 weeks for getting some widespread rains. 

That is probably the saddest part of it all.  We're stuck in a bizzaro weather world where a 1 game winning streak feels like we are world champions.

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5 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Excellent point. I do mention two different things in my rant.

They do take local ground conditions into account, but the other factors Tom mentioned also are included. Plus these maps are updated only once a week on Thursdays, so I suspect we will see an expansion of D0 and D1 categories in our area. 

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

That is probably the saddest part of it all.  We're stuck in a bizzaro weather world where a 1 game winning streak feels like we are world champions.

Well at least you have the gfs now on board for some rain on sunday, whatever that may be worth. 

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