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Hermine & Labor Day Weekend/Week Tropical/Extra-Tropical/Tropical, The Storm That Refuses To Leave


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You weren't kidding.

Incredible ...

All of our products are out now. If anyone was wondering why things were delayed today, a lot of coordination goes on behind the scenes. 

4 minutes ago, Trotter54 said:

This is terrible news for the holiday weekend. I am leaving for Brigantine NJ tonight?

Yeah. I feel for those with big beach plans. Obviously, still plenty of time for things to change but a potential buzzkill for lots. 

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2 minutes ago, talonsmith said:

Brutal door slam on our summer mother nature.

Kind of surprised at the model agreement so soon

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk
 

They all agreed on an offshore solution last night, so this is far from a done deal "as is".  Tonight's night run has meaning (well every run has meaning ;) ).

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16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

No model run to run consistency. Euro went west by I am guessing 300-400 miles from the night run. This has not been a Sandy type run in/run out consistency solution. With Hermine dilly-dallying in the Gulf and our northern stream trof moving through it looks like the out to sea option is losing favor fast. 

weather wheel.jpg

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28 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

That euro run was brutal for coastal folks.. Ouch. 75-80knt 850mb winds there for a bit verbatim. Probably a decent inversion to keep winds from mixing down too much. But coastal areas could be in for trouble.

 

 

I should remind everyone that we've seen a pretty big shift in models the last 2 days, so there's still a ton of uncertainty. 

 

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In general. peak gusts from Sandy were about a 30% reduction of the 850mb winds along the immediate coast, closer to 40-50% inland. GFS soundings are not close to adiabatic on Saturday, they actually get less.  Just speaking in generalities, there is a big difference in winds on the west vs east (left vs right) side of a system.

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With the slow movement of the storm we could see significant rain for a prolonged period of time and the is even if these models move a couple of hundred miles. Does anyone have the numbers of rain totals for the jersey shore or phl area?

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3 minutes ago, Trotter54 said:

With the slow movement of the storm we could see significant rain for a prolonged period of time and the is even if these models move a couple of hundred miles. Does anyone have the numbers of rain totals for the jersey shore or phl area?

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The op ECMWF has 6 to 12 inches near the shore, Delaware. The previous op ECMWF run had zero.

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These are the ensemble means on Sunday morning.  There are many permutations and combinations with this, but the feature to also look out for is the surface high/500 mb flow aloft north of us. The GEFS exits the high faster letting Hermine get farther north before the loop de looping commences.  Whether you loved today's 12z suite of model runs or hated it (neither will help it verify better), there is still alot of uncertainty out there.  This sounding run tonight and further corroboration by tomorrow's day run to "stay the course" will increase confidence if the windshield wipers finally get turned off.  The overall trend still seems slower, unless its slower north of us too would think stage right, complete miss is not appearing as likely.

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_5.png

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_17.png

 

gem-ens_mslpa_us_17.png

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going in more detail about the eps with the indiv member low locations. Still a good spread but a lot more are either inland over delmarva, even some back towards DC, then others right along the coast, then some further off shore. It's pretty tough to designate what happens because each members is stalling at different times so while one may look like a miss, 24hrs in advance it ends up closer. In general though, the mean takes it off hse northeast then stalls it about 200 miles east of delmarva. Then its slowly backs it west into delmarva mid next week as the High out in the atlantic strengthens. 

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So this could definitely be skewed by some high members, again won't know till later. But the EPS mean for precip for phl at 0z run through 12z next thurs was about .8  12z run today for phl is 1.2 The shore's qpf doubled with 

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I sorta hope the models are right giving us rain from Hermine. An inland track and then off the sj coast would be good for heavy rain over the philly region. With Tropical Systems, the heaviest rain tends to be on the west side of the track, due to circulation and friction (and uplift in our area). We need the rain, but lets keep it under 5 inches so any flooding is lessened. An inland track would also help keep winds from being too strong and limit beach erosion as southerly and southeast winds limit beach erosion vs the n/ne winds which cause erosion.

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