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8/18 rain obs, it may be stratiform too!!


tombo82685
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Models are in pretty good agreement on rain pushing into the area after midnight tonight. Placement of heaviest rain is pretty much a coin flip. Euro had it up across LV. Nam had two areas one across LV and one just south of m/d line. the gfs was generally Tpk on south for heaviest. Ggem was across se pa up to lv and most of nj and northern Del. Point being there may be an area of some heavier rainfall as a weak low pressure tracks along a stalled front 

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Stop promising me flowers and chocolates.;)

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Thanks Tony. My wife came in to my office when viewing the topic and saw the ground hog cup cakes. Now she is "digging" for the recipe. Google "nailed it" and look at the cooking disasters. That will be the overall experience. :facepalm:

cooking fails.jpg

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well the EPS are outlining between i80 and i95 in delaware as northern and southern extent of heaviest rain. With the heaviest being right from toms river-phl-ptw in that zone. with .4-.5 So we have all areas covered with every model pin pointing a different area. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

well the EPS are outlining between i80 and i95 in delaware as northern and southern extent of heaviest rain. With the heaviest being right from toms river-phl-ptw in that zone. with .4-.5 So we have all areas covered with every model pin pointing a different area. 

If this was a norlun trof, we'd be in full winter model (qpf) mode.

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

I see KDIX and State College radar are down. Going old school and looking out of my window. 

Hopefully with cooling tonight we will be able to restart the radar as it looks like we will need it (as long as the inside temperature does not go above the critical threshold). It is an A/C issue and it got to hot, therefore we had to shut it down to prevent damage to the equipment. Contractor is scheduled for tomorrow to hopefully fix the A/C.

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33 minutes ago, dryslotted said:

I feel like not much of what the HRRR throws against the wall each hour sticks, if you catch my drift. It must go out drinking with the NAM...:cheers:

Yeah it has been entertaining the last several days watching the hourly HRRR updates as it chases where the convection will be or where renewed development occurs.

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28 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Hopefully with cooling tonight we will be able to restart the radar as it looks like we will need it (as long as the inside temperature does not go above the critical threshold). It is an A/C issue and it got to hot, therefore we had to shut it down to prevent damage to the equipment. Contractor is scheduled for tomorrow to hopefully fix the A/C.

I can see where that would be a considerable issue. Thanks for the update.

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56 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

well we can pretty much toss the euro and eps because they had virtually nothing for DC and well, thats going to be wrong.

Bless their hearts, but models don't do convection well.  Pretty much have to follow a model du jour and it changes every day.

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Impressive bow for Kent County 0E.  Looks like some rain should fall in the Philly metro area.  Its all the way back to DC, so any purely linear progression would mean 3-4 hoursworth. The 00z nam had a feedback look to its qpf, but didnt investigate it further.  Good night, hope to wake up to  >.10" in the gage.  Call me Paul East, high today only 88, ends our run of 90s.  :)

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