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Arthur, PRE, and possible svr storms obs thread 7/2-7-4


tombo82685
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CAPE already growing pretty fast with most of the region in the 2000-3000 range already. LI already in the -5 to -6 range also. Plenty of instability to get storms going. Just need the cap to burn off an get some CU going. Pretty decent EML also right now. Should allow for some winds to reach to the surface.

 

PWATS are already over 1.7 for majority of the area. So you can see heavy rain is going to be an issue in storms to.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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severe watch out for berks, LV and pocs

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1115 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF NEWPORT VERMONT TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN TORNADO ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
PA/NY AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN IN ZONE OF STRONG SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE...WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ON SERN FLANK OF HUDSON
BAY UPR LOW. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ASSISTED BY UPR IMPULSE NOW SHEARING
NNEWD FROM WV/WRN PA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

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flash flood watch up

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-031000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0005.140703T1200Z-140704T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
336 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE, FOR CECIL
COUNTY IN MARYLAND, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX,
WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MIDDLESEX, MERCER, WESTERN
MONMOUTH, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER AND SALEM,
AND FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE,
NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY, BUCKS,
PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OUR
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG
STREAMS AND CREEKS, ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
THE FLOODING MAY OCCUR QUICKLY IN THE HEAVIEST OF THE DOWNPOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$

IOVINO

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Don't really see anything to severe looking right now. 2 hail markers right now, with the cell leaving bucks co and the other in northern lanc co. Both hail markers are under svr criteria. Main threat is heavy rain right now.

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Yea, things really fizzled out around our neck of the woods. Anything that went up good, pulsed hard, and collapsed equally as fast. Limited shear to tilt the updrafts , so they collapsed on themselves. You can OFB's coming out of the stronger storms now.

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Rippin' big T'storm over Phoenixville now ... lots of cloud to ground lightning ... heavy downpours, vis < 0.25 mi. ... grass and bushes loving it but heavy runoff from dried ground as well. ... expecting some local street flooding.

 

ChesCo police and fire frequencies busy with numerous automatic alarms and some traffic tie ups. Fair number of "trees and wires" calls as well.

 

Radar shows storm line moving NE at a pretty good clip; should be outta here in 15-20 min. but looks like more on the way for later.

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