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8/6 Marginal risk


tombo82685
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Line is starting to forum out wes, sun is filtering through broken cloud deck. CAPE values in the 1500-2500 range, LI -3 to -5 support thunderstorm development. Bulk shear is decent, but the best shear remains to the north. Should see a broken line or some storms start to pop in this airmass. PWATS in the 1.7-2 support heavy rainfall with any storm. Primary issue with this is wind and heavy rainfall. Hail shouldn't be a big issue nor tornadoes. 

 

MD 1484 graphic

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NJ...ERN/SRN PA...MD...NRN DE...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061654Z - 061930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING
   ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   AHEAD OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL NY TO NRN KY.
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED
   BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
   ALL SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTION DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST
   MINIMAL CAPPING. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   70S...MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH
   30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FACILITATING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   MOST INTENSE TSTMS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE IMPLIED BY AREA VWPS AND SFC
   OBSERVATIONS...THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE MID
   LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALL TEND TO MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY
   DENSER CLUSTERS OF DMGG WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH MORE PROMINENT
   MULTICELL TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY FROM E-CNTRL PA INTO NRN/CNTRL NJ --
   AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
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Just got done playing Wedgewood up by Allentown and it was overcast and an occasional sprinkle, THEN the sun came out and boiled the air for the last hour or so. Hot and humid for sure. Maybe the threat of storms kept people away. My friend and I played 18 holes in just under 3 1/2 hours. It was great. 

 

Kept an eye on radar the whole time and storms didn't start to pop until the sun came out and then that line above Allentown began to form and it looks like it was heading towards Jersey and not coming South.

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6 minutes ago, phlwx said:

Stuff out by Harrisburg is our "hope" in the metro...

072116-R.png

if we are to believe the euro, things don't start developing decently till about the lns-rdg-abe line. 12z run was rather robust in the area with .25-.5 qpf. As we know the convection and models blow.

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in terms of instability the best of it is right over sepa and interior nj, with 2000-3000j, combined with LI in the -3 to -5 range. combined with prime heating of the day. Should see some increase in coverage as that pushes east. 

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3 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Looks like no ground truth reports yet. 

pretty small core.. combined with distance from radar could of " over did" the look. Freezing level were pretty high up, so a pretty solid cloud top would of been needed. 

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