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7/28-8/1 Heavy rain obs


tombo82685
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Flash flood watch in effect over the region south of i78. With PWATS increasing to over 2" combined with a low pressure entering the area friday and then another Sunday the potential for heavy rain exists. Euro and EPS have been consitently showing 1-2" over the region. As is with convection, models can never grasp qpf that well so areas of higher rainfall totals exceeding 2+ inches are likely. There could also be some severe potential specifically south of i95 in southern nj and Delaware where there is some instability and decent shear to work with.

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FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

434 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>024-026-027-

PAZ070-071-101>106-280445-

/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0003.160728T2200Z-160729T2300Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-

QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-

ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-

DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-

WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...

REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...

DENTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...

SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...

CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...

HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...

LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...

HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...

COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...

PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN

434 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING

THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND

SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN

DELAWARE...DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW

CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...

QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC

COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL OCEAN...

CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...

MERCER...MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...SALEM...

SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN

SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN

MONTGOMERY...LOWER BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS...

WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.

* FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY

CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLASH

FLOOD THREAT.

* THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2

OR MORE INCHES IN ONE HOUR WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH

FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD

TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION

SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

FRANK

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12z euro and eps continuing to show potential for some very heavy rain with very high PWATS. Euro is showing 1-3" over the region, eps are 1-2". With as much moisture being shown in the atmosphere, there will certainly be places that go over 2" easily. This is just for Thursday night into Friday. Sunday may bring another bout of heavy rain too.

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day 2 convective outlook. Might see the marginal zone inch north a little maybe to tpk, but the rest looks pretty good in my eyes. Best instability is south in central and lower delaware. Day 3 convective outlook has marginal risk from i95 on south and east. With how the low pressure is modeled to track as of right now, that look right. Best instability and shear is i95 and south.

post-1-0-70541800-1469658499.gif

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I guess I better mow (my weeds) tomorrow. 

 

/\ /\ /\    What he said! I am amazed at how much and how quickly various green things have grown in 2-3 days. The yard went from brown-out to overgrown in 36 hours. Also suffering an explosion of crabgrass. Yech!

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Really gonna have to keep an eye on that SLP track. Especially Friday am.

Low cape, high shear environment , could produce some supercells if we get warm sectored. Mostly targeting Delmarva, SNJ, and maybe sepa.

 

Yes, synoptic scale flash flood watch days in Julys have generated tornadoes in the warm sector in the past.  Low LCL(s).

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IF we get that much rain, I would expect a lot of run off. The ground is still like concrete. We need a nice steady soaking rain for a couple of days. Afterwards, we will be complaining it is too wet to mow the lawn.

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EPS continue to increase amount as we get closer, most likely due to differences in track becoming smaller. Large area of 1-2" of rain from tonight into tomorrow. Brunt of the rain should be over by 1pm on Friday. Euro operational was a general 1-3". The EPS then tack on another 1" of rain over the region. Wouldn't surprise me if they put up some flood watches for Sunday too.  

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For tonight and tomorrow morning it looks as of right now the heaviest in terms of solid stratiform rains maybe up in the nw burbs to poconos.  Though where you get storms in the semi warm sector it could easily put down several inches. 

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Delmarva is primed already: ML Cape 2000+, LI -8

 

edit: hopefully this is wrong (10AM)

 

EASTON MOSUNNY 90 81 74 S6 29.93F HX 108

 

Easton's dew point runs high. But, we were in Saint Michaels one late July (Ava - great pizza), its not as if its off by 5 or 10.  PGA Championship is going to have a tough time not being affected by rain delays at Baltrusol.  This had to be the worst feeling grass cutting I have had this summer.

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