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July 22-27 Possible Record Heat, Thunderstorm, Rock OBS


colonel_kurtz
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You gents are better than me, I was melting this afternoon. Root those GFS dew points on, they are only 10 degrees lower than the nam. (Which must think we are stuck in the middle of some corn field in Iowa).

 

Just like that, NAM MOS dropped 10 to 15 degrees lower on dew points  for Saturday.

 

SPC slight and marginal risk sagged southward with their day 1 outlook, slight now into Mount Holly CWA and marginal south of PHL.

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Tony, keep that trend of lower dew points going, I'll take all the help I can get on Saturday. 

 

Glad the course I'm playing on Saturday has a lot of trees and shade. I can't hit the ball in the fairway so I already know the spots under the trees I'll be playing my second shot, and third, and fourth, etc.  NOW that I said that, you watch, every shot will be in the fairway and in the sun.

 

 

 

Chris

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Tony, keep that trend of lower dew points going, I'll take all the help I can get on Saturday. 

 

Glad the course I'm playing on Saturday has a lot of trees and shade. I can't hit the ball in the fairway so I already know the spots under the trees I'll be playing my second shot, and third, and fourth, etc.  NOW that I said that, you watch, every shot will be in the fairway and in the sun.

 

 

 

Chris

 

I think the more vigorous the convection is today, the better the chances for lower dew points tomorrow, even if the mcs passes north of us.

 

Anyway here is how the big 2 verified with their 24hr 850mb 20C progs. SPC carried that outofworldy 20c+ isodrosotherms for two straight soundings.  Euro hiest mean rh @ 850 not well placed with them.  That moist pool is going to make it easier for an mcs later today.

 

post-27-0-94391100-1469197678.jpg

 

post-27-0-80932700-1469197674.gif

 

post-27-0-48617900-1469197673.gif

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The 10+10 rule would get both PHL & ABE to 93 this afternoon.  GFS 2m temp max temp yesterday was only 1F too low, a rarity for it.  Adding 2F to today's would yield 94 at both PHL & ABE. So yes the GFS is not buying those EC solutions of ABE 5 degrees warmer hotter than PHL.

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I can't say I'm looking forward to this, especially since I think our A/C might be starting to go.

 

Even with the excessive heat advisory in effect, I went over to the local museum's arboretum last night for a walk and was pleasantly surprised with the cool breeze. I'm hoping for similar tonight but not expecting it.

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if you have a case of cold beer it may be tempting.

Finally got the picture corrected.

 

You are more than welcome to come and have your beer boil in your hand. I'll keep giving you cold ones but you better drink fast. 

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