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Hey Tombo, here's an updated image with June:

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif?time=1467

 

I definitely like the tanking of June's number. I'm waiting to see if Theodore White's prediction of a 36-year global cooling period starts in December 2017 like he said. He's been talking about it for a decade now and is talking about a 2.5 - 3 degree Celcius drop in temperature by 2035.

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Latest ENSO outlook by dynamical and statistical modeling centers.

 

The dynamical model outlook average went from -1.1C in May to -0.9C in June for DJF.

The statistical model outlook average went from -0.7C to -0.8C for DJF same time period.

 

Snow/cold its a straight line with enso neutral negative the best, followed by weak la nina, moderate la nina & strong la nina.  Don't know how the new snow order changes the long Philly climo, but while weak la nina(s) is better than other nina phases, '95-'96 was not your typical weak nina winter. AO/NAO plays a bigger hand than average, why mdt la 2010-11 was gangbusters until the nao flipped positive.

 

post-27-0-29857100-1468511310.gif

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So does it go 0.0 - 0.5 neutral, 0.5 - 1 weak, 1.0-1.5 moderate and 1.5+ strong? Obviously add a - in front of those numbers for La Nina

Pretty much. CPC redoes the ssta every year or so, it nudges borderline cat ninas around. -0.5 is the accepted threshold for the start of ninas.

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  • 3 weeks later...
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4 hours ago, Mitchg said:

95-96 and 83-84 are my early analogs for winter. :fall-to-pieces::abomsnow: weak Niña with a postive PDO. 

were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo

 Not sure which direction the QBO will go. Both those years had it go from postive to negative by winter. That could happen this year. 

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo

I saw the first, not second question.  1983-84 was also assisted by the eruption of El Chichon.  I have to go back and read Adam's info on qbo/solar cycle and blocking.

solar-cycle-19-23.gif

Edit:

solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

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