Mitchg Posted July 11, 2016 Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 A much tamer and more east-based la-nina than previously thought for winter. Nice warm PDO still? Might have to change tune a bit for winter. . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 11, 2016 Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 A much tamer and more east-based la-nina than previously thought for winter. Nice warm PDO still? Might have to change tune a bit for winter. . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 we like 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Hey Tombo, here's an updated image with June: I definitely like the tanking of June's number. I'm waiting to see if Theodore White's prediction of a 36-year global cooling period starts in December 2017 like he said. He's been talking about it for a decade now and is talking about a 2.5 - 3 degree Celcius drop in temperature by 2035. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Remember, 06-07 and 07-08 weren't the blockbusters the blockbuster winters happened at and after the solar min. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Remember, 06-07 and 07-08 weren't the blockbusters the blockbuster winters happened at and after the solar min. 06-07 were the slizzards and a brutally cold 2nd half of winter, we take that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 New Jamstec outlook for winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 06-07 were the slizzards and a brutally cold 2nd half of winter, we take that 06-07 13.4 ( Feb was very cold) 07-08 6.3 Nice Jamstec run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Anything dealing with what may happen with this upcoming winter goes in here. Or to just talk about past winter events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Anything dealing with what may happen with this upcoming winter goes in here. Or to just talk about past winter events.Summer 2021 is going to be a hot one. Joking aside, every summer since 1955 at 11 year intervals has been hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Latest ENSO outlook by dynamical and statistical modeling centers. The dynamical model outlook average went from -1.1C in May to -0.9C in June for DJF. The statistical model outlook average went from -0.7C to -0.8C for DJF same time period. Snow/cold its a straight line with enso neutral negative the best, followed by weak la nina, moderate la nina & strong la nina. Don't know how the new snow order changes the long Philly climo, but while weak la nina(s) is better than other nina phases, '95-'96 was not your typical weak nina winter. AO/NAO plays a bigger hand than average, why mdt la 2010-11 was gangbusters until the nao flipped positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 So does it go 0.0 - 0.5 neutral, 0.5 - 1 weak, 1.0-1.5 moderate and 1.5+ strong? Obviously add a - in front of those numbers for La Nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 So does it go 0.0 - 0.5 neutral, 0.5 - 1 weak, 1.0-1.5 moderate and 1.5+ strong? Obviously add a - in front of those numbers for La Nina Pretty much. CPC redoes the ssta every year or so, it nudges borderline cat ninas around. -0.5 is the accepted threshold for the start of ninas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Just give me any enso except mod and strong la nina, thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2016 Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 we like this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted July 15, 2016 Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 Just saw that on twitter. low solar, enso neutral negative after a nino.. QBO seems like a wild card at this point with the weird stuff its doing. Its only July, but some positive developments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 ENSO/PDO matches 83-84 & 1995-96 way early in the game though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieO Posted July 19, 2016 Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 An interesting blog post on the downplaying of the La Nina on the recent models and why that might be, by the always excellent Anthony Barnston: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2016-enso-discussion-enjoy-neutral-while-it-lasts 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 8, 2016 Report Share Posted August 8, 2016 Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 4h4 hours ago New European monthlies are in through the winter. Theme of near/below normal temps and near/above normal precip (snow) continues! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 8, 2016 Report Share Posted August 8, 2016 the atlantic hasn't looked like this in a while 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 18, 2016 Report Share Posted August 18, 2016 Now to summarize other posts, apologies to Tom, Mitch, Bob and JamieO if I get any of this wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 95-96 and 83-84 are my early analogs for winter. weak Niña with a postive PDO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Mitchg said: 95-96 and 83-84 are my early analogs for winter. weak Niña with a postive PDO. were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo Not sure which direction the QBO will go. Both those years had it go from postive to negative by winter. That could happen this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 15 hours ago, tombo82685 said: were those low solar years? I this winter is going into a low solar period? Also, what state was the QBO? Looks like this winter may feature a eqbo I saw the first, not second question. 1983-84 was also assisted by the eruption of El Chichon. I have to go back and read Adam's info on qbo/solar cycle and blocking. Edit: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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