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7/1 Enhanced Risk Observations/Discussion


irishbri74
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Nam looking decent for parameters tomorrow. Decent cape & shear, poor mid level lapse rates, but impressive low level lapse rates. Just have to see where storms can fire off. Wouldn't be surprised to see us in slight risk in the new day 1 outlook.

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Rain and lightning aplenty at my in-laws camper at Acorn Canpground, Green Creek, Cape May county...they are still cleaning up from the straight line wind storms that toppled trees onto at least three units and closed the campground for several days. Not severe tonight but interesting to see these cells intensify over the bay after midnight.

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SPC right now has marginal from rt1 on north, I would think though they would bring about slgt risk and push the marginal further south as well as the slgt risk. This is off the NAM, so buyer beware, but thats a legit severe sounding, nice mid level lapse rates with the dry punch aloft. That sounding would definitely have wind and some hail. PWATS are also above 1.5 so heavy rain could be an issue too.

well we got the slight risk now

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In coverage, in intensity?

 

Sorry, I'm not sure I even know what I'm asking lol! Started out this AM with DP in the upper 50's (low 60's now). I would think you would need about mid to upper 60's for better storm development (assumption on my part)? Will prolonged daytime heating increase DP's, or is there a front that will raise them? Sorry for the novice questions! 

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Sorry, I'm not sure I even know what I'm asking lol! Started out this AM with DP in the upper 50's (low 60's now). I would think you would need about mid to upper 60's for better storm development (assumption on my part)? Will prolonged daytime heating increase DP's, or is there a front that will raise them? Sorry for the novice questions! 

 

Nope, not novice questions.  A combination of higher dew points moving north from the Chesapeake & Delaware Bay areas and also some eventual pooling/convergence near the front or a preceding lee side trof.  We already have higher than forecast dews here, but they will probably mix lower later this morning/early this afternoon.  The models have been ok with the predicted dew points today. Sometimes they go tropical and result in capes that are outrageously too high. That negative tilt vort max could be closer, but I did not see any predicted negative vort advection during the afternoon.

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Decent radar coverage for this time of day already. Also shower popped just near Philly. We got that dirty sky look today. Our dew points have dropped a bit, but Delaware & Chesapeake Bays have reached official bath water levels, plenty of lo 70 dews there.

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