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6/28 slgt risk for North and West


tombo82685
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Slight risk for areas outside of the 202 corridor, with marginal risk to the south and east. All will depend on how much sun we get, but this marine puke should burn off and cause ample heating west of the river with CAPE values 1500j+ and LI in the -3 to -5 range. Looks like heavy rains and winds are biggest issue, some hail too can't be ruled out too. You can see the sounding below a little dry air punch in lower levels would indicate high wind issues

 

06_GFS_018_39.97,-75.35_severe_ml.png

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Looking at the radar, I'd say they are beginning to weaken quite a bit. Seems like nothing makes it past Reading and it begins to break up shortly thereafter. I'm on the Ridge up here in Upper Bucks and seems like it splits and either breaks up or goes North and South and leaves us high and dry.

 

Maybe more rain/t-storms will happen around here later this evening, but not looking promising. Somebody prove me wrong.

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to my untrained eye, it appears on radar the areas to the north and south of Lehigh Valley will have the better chances?

 

tough to say, there is a lot of juice to work with. Cape values between del river and susq river are 2000-3000j, with LI in the -4 to -7 range, plenty of fuel with some shear thrown in. But the cloud tops being blown off isn't good in my eyes. Doesn't mean no rain, just maybe no severe storms.

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we will see how this plays out, but I don't like how the anvil is being blown out way in fornt of the storm. Usually that tells me the area under that chances for a good storm decrease.

 

as expected that line by mdt that moved into lns really weakened, to much anvil debris out ahead. We shall see what the next round does.

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