6/23 Obs/Discussions, Severe Weather Threat? / Soaking Rain? / Oh No Its Going South Again :(

[Rainshadow]

Well there has been much uncertainty in modeling solutions with Thursday's weather, but the trend from a couple of the days ago has undeniably been south, south, south.  Its as if the convective systems want no part of the dry conditions across northern NJ and NYC metro.  For now the day2 severe weather outlook comes as far north as PHL's latitude. Modeling in general even in the cool sector has a sharp cut-off between the haves and have nots.

 

 

Bless the NAM's heart for showing the southward trend in the most extreme fashion.  Depicted are the pcpn totals from the 12z run yesterday to the 06z run today.

 

 

 

 

[Parsley]

Not surprised one bit.

I'm hearing the 0z Euro still shows something?

[Parsley]

.

[colonel_kurtz]

6Z GFS for a soaking rain north of the city:

 

 

[Rainshadow]

Not surprised one bit.

I'm hearing the 0z Euro still shows something?

That's what I heard.

[tombo82685]

That's what I heard.

 

general .3-.6. The low track is over ILG. The problem is the mtns carve it up and the low is weakening as it's sliding east too. So you lose all the heaviest rains. EPS are about .5-.75 from lv, which is the .5 and .75 around phl to dov region. EPS low locations clustered right over ilg and phl.

[JamieO]

NAM appears to be north. Go NAM. Seriously, and Tony probably understands, as an avid gardener I root for rain harder than I do for blizzards. You don't want to know how intensely I follow radar, lol.

[chescowx]

Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco is down to 0.88" of rain tomorrow between 4am and 2pm.

We are now 1.18" below normal for rain this month and 1.44" short for the year with 21.58" so far to date - grass is starting to look a bit dry on the south facing hills

Wxsim shows no higher temps than 83.7 over the next 7 days which means we will should enter July and get close to the 3 year mark (July 18, 2013) which was the last time we recorded a 90 degree reading here in East Nantmeal Township. 

[tombo82685]

If you're north of dyl to kutztown line the euro will make you upset lol

[cbelke]

I'm about 9 miles North of Doylestown.

 

I'm upset...  Need... rain... soon... so... thirsty...

[Rainshadow]

If you're north of dyl to kutztown line the euro will make you upset lol

 

Wait a second, 234 pm, 13th hole, that explains my "shot." 

 

I dont think day 2 svr outlook from spc changed much from the early morning issuance.

[Rainshadow]

Congrats(?) West Virginia.

 

[Harbourton]

How come no one's talking about the drought lol.  Meanwhile Washington Crossing NJ got hit with a severe thunder storm last nite trapping patrons of a local drive in joint NUTZ. A power pole went down and the sparking wires trapped the people in the restaurant. Titusville had 600 people without power this morning. I live may be a mile from there and hardly a drop of rain or gust of wind. Close call but no cigars.

[colonel_kurtz]

How come no one's talking about the drought lol. Meanwhile Washington Crossing NJ got hit with a severe thunder storm last nite trapping patrons of a local drive in joint NUTZ. A power pole went down and the sparking wires trapped the people in the restaurant. Titusville had 600 people without power this morning. I live may be a mile from there and hardly a drop of rain or gust of wind. Close call but no cigars.

Spelled Nutts - they have some very tasty fried chicken.

[tombo82685]

eps are generally .1-.25 from pne north to about LV.. phl south is .3-.6

[tombo82685]

 

eps are generally .1-.25 from pne north to about LV.. phl south is .3-.6

 

 

One maybe silver lining for getting this a little further north. The euro is to far south with the northern extent of the thunderstorms right now. It didn't get anything past the WI/IL line, while radar has storms into Milwaukee. Now whether that helps down stream for a more northern precip shield, who knows.

[tombo82685]

One maybe silver lining for getting this a little further north. The euro is to far south with the northern extent of the thunderstorms right now. It didn't get anything past the WI/IL line, while radar has storms into Milwaukee. Now whether that helps down stream for a more northern precip shield, who knows.

 

Most likely though I'm going to wake up at 430am tomorrow morning and see the rain over DC and want to throw my phone against the wall lol

[irishbri74]

GFS tries to make it interesting for immediate Southern Pa/SEPA:

Probably over cooking dews , but should be fun to watch

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TTNwatcher]

Most likely though I'm going to wake up at 430am tomorrow morning and see the rain over DC and want to throw my phone against the wall lol

Your poor phone....

[Rainshadow]

Your poor phone....

 

Lol.

 

[colonel_kurtz]

additional Euro discussions now taking place in our "official" what are you drinking thread

[tombo82685]

I seriously hate convection, no model can handle it right. It messes up everything in winter time and in summer. The euro's .7 and the EPS 1" of rain for philly are wellll...

 

[Rainshadow]

I seriously hate convection, no model can handle it right. It messes up everything in winter time and in summer. The euro's .7 and the EPS 1" of rain for philly are wellll...

 

Worst part their last chance run before today, they trended in the wrong direction.

[tombo82685]

Worst part their last chance run before today, they trended in the wrong direction.

yea, but in terms of h5, it closer than the gfs was by far

[cbelke]

Did the RPM model win on this forecast?  

 

I can't keep all the models straight, not sure how you pro's do it.