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6/5 Enhance Risk Convective Reports/Discussion


JimCaruso
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Well the day has arrived. Clouds covering the state right now and showers ongoing in West Virginia, moving NE. Other than that, at least no morning rain around here so hopefully we will get some destabilization. 4K NAM has backed off of the excessive CAPE that it showed in yesterday's runs but it is still unreasonably high compared to the NAM and GFS. Dewpoints still seem overdone on all three models considering that the nearest 70s Td's are in northern VA right now. GFS seems to being the cold front / surface trough through earlier in the day than the other two models, which would limit our opportunity for destabilization. In any case, based on a read of the overnight SPC outlook, there does not seem to be much chance of discrete storms or supercells. Convection is expected to initiate well to the west and progress eastward. Could the current showers in WV already be the start of that and just intensify as the day progresses??

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The HRRR so far has been overdoing the rain. A few model runs ago, at this time there would've been showers across our forum area. So far it's been pretty dry with a few showers. My worries are the cloud cover and showers popping up. The latest HRRR seemed pretty good though as the storms seem to intensify right as they hit the I-95 area. I'm hoping we can maximize our instability potential because the squall line could get pretty furious with the high amount of shear.

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This is based on NCAR ensemble outlooks. The convection in WV is not suppose  get out of there and make it farther east. If it does over the next couple of hours not being handled correctly.  I could see us getting warmer than 80, but the ensemble means have dew points greater than 72 (at least they dont have that occurring near MPO ;), which would yield beefier results and may be overdone.  MOS dew points at VAY are now up to 70.  Their members were pretty solid at forming a line that moves through between 4 pm and 7 pm (tend to run slow). Differences crop as to the extent of beefier convection in the northern half of NJ.  If you go to the general hrrr site, hrrrx is better at handling convection than the current op hrrr.  Once the op hrrr gets "too hot", it just goes ballistic. If it stays reasonably in line with predicted convection it does well.  As always, I just hope I hear a rumble or two of thunder and get some rain out of this.

 

Tom knows why I chose member 10. :o    This is 6 pm.

 

post-27-0-95577100-1465127893.jpg

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New SPC

 

Dt1WUqH.gif

ZA95FvJ.gif

lVlfKTn.gif

 

 

STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...REACHING THE COASTAL
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASINGLY COMMON AS FAR NORTH AS NY/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

WHILE RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY BE IN
PLACE...EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY FEATURES RELATIVELY
PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES NOTED IN REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN SO...POCKETS OF STRONG
INSOLATION AND A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFYING/INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID-LEVEL /700-500 MB/
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...30-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED AND RELATIVELY
FAST-MOVING STORMS.

A FEW INITIAL SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...BUT AN AMPLE DEGREE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH A TENDENCY FOR VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL/LINEARLY BANDED
CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
INITIAL OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

 

Not too surprised by the new 5% tor. We'll see about hail with the high PW values.

 

Maybe watch for embedded supercells in the line?

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Pretty sure that disco was copy & pasted from the previous update.

Biggest concern this afternoon:

When and how long do we clear out for?

Any discrete cells that form in the warm sector could have supercell characteristics. Keep an eye on those.

What time does the philly split happen? My $ is on 630

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Pretty sure that disco was copy & pasted from the previous update.

Biggest concern this afternoon:

When and how long do we clear out for?

Any discrete cells that form in the warm sector could have supercell characteristics. Keep an eye on those.

What time does the philly split happen? My $ is on 630

Hmm, I thought it looked different so I pasted it. 

 

It's dreary now, but I think it's good that we don't have any showers in our area. 

 

I would start getting worried if it were 2 PM and we still haven't cleared out some. 

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Hmm, I thought it looked different so I pasted it.

It's dreary now, but I think it's good that we don't have any showers in our area.

I would start getting worried if it were 2 PM and we still haven't cleared out some.

Lol, I should have mentioned it was on behalf of the SPC. They didn't change the wording too much from the previous disco.

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Pretty sure that disco was copy & pasted from the previous update.

Biggest concern this afternoon:

When and how long do we clear out for?

Any discrete cells that form in the warm sector could have supercell characteristics. Keep an eye on those.

What time does the philly split happen? My $ is on 630

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Is the Philly split similar to the Chessy/Canal split?

Yep!

12z 4K nam:

630394d0503c8f5f720477e48e27d422.jpg

d6c7b4ae62a44c1ae78f5071de6a343c.jpg

b45dcf0caaa0765fae7c8a5e0396dad8.jpgd132a75404ba7309877fe9c473d0571e.jpg

Showing one hell of a supercell towards Lanco/chesco traversing east. Suspect of it staying discrete, and expecting more of a qlcs. But, the supercell (if it happens), could dictate its own environment for longer than expected

All comes down to clearing. I believe the warm front is pushing through now.

67d3c1bba246b0bbb8a3954bd45509f1.jpg

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