Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Well, it looks like a "normal" April/May combo resulted in an analog six pack with a slightly below average series. 1987 & 1992 in the bunch had the best fit for April & May and even had some May heat. All of them came off of el nino winters. In general tempwise June was a toss up with July favoring hotter weather more than usual and 5 of the 6 analogs had August cooler than average. 1995 which made the cut was a very hot and dry summer. Precip averaged near normal which means watering. Too bad Bonnie wasnt in June, would have given me a head start for the Carolinas. Well come September 1st we will see how off I am. The summer 2016 analogs for Philadelphia are: Year June avg July avg August avg #90F Highs summer avg summer pcpn 1952 74.7 80.1 75.1 36 76.6 11.95 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 11 72.9 17.31 1969 73.4 75.1 75.2 9 74.6 18.30 1987* 74.6 79.5 76.2 31 76.5 10.55 1992* 71.3 77.1 73.4 14 73.9 8.89 1995 74.3 81.5 79.8 49 78.5 4.69 Avg 72.7 78.5 75.3 25 75.5 11.95 1981- 2010 73.3 78.1 76.6 76.0 11.28 Normal 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 PHL 74.2 for June ended within the analog spread. 1958 (tu ) brought down the analog average. Countrywide not so good as June was hawt practically everywhere. July being the hottest one relative to average looks "good" right now leaving an odd cool down for August to make this outlook "work". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 July 2016 at PHL managed to somehow remain within the analog spread thanks to 1995 being included. Mean temp was 81.2F. Nationally looks like we did pretty good in Idaho and Montana, except we dont live there. August is the make/break month for what I'd give myself as a C summer outlook so far. Relative to normal August was outlooked cooler than normal by 5 of the 6 analogs, so there was no 1958 dragging it down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 August was an absolute failure on my part as it was the warmest August on record. This summer was following 1987 analog closely for June & July and then jumped to 1995 (even warmer) for August. I think a few people would take the ensuing winter. Overall this was a bad, bad outlook, I give myself a D- only June saving me from an F. Conversely props to Mitch who had a much better and hotter outlook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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