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Summer 2016 Outlook, Now We Know What Isnt Going To Happen

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Well, it looks like a "normal" April/May combo resulted in an analog six pack with a slightly below average series.  1987 & 1992 in the bunch had the best fit for April & May and even had some May heat.  All of them came off of el nino winters.  In general tempwise June was a toss up with July favoring hotter weather more than usual and 5 of the 6 analogs had August cooler than average.  1995 which made the cut was a very hot and dry summer.   Precip averaged near normal which means watering.  Too bad Bonnie wasnt in June, would have given me a head start for the Carolinas.  :(


Well come September 1st we will see how off I am.



The summer 2016 analogs for Philadelphia are:


Year    June avg   July avg   August avg  #90F Highs  summer avg   summer pcpn

1952     74.7         80.1          75.1               36                      76.6           11.95

1958     67.8         77.4          73.4               11                      72.9           17.31

1969      73.4        75.1          75.2                 9                      74.6           18.30

1987*    74.6        79.5          76.2               31                      76.5           10.55   

1992*    71.3        77.1          73.4               14                      73.9             8.89

1995     74.3         81.5          79.8               49                      78.5             4.69

Avg      72.7        78.5          75.3               25                       75.5           11.95



2010      73.3        78.1          76.6                                         76.0           11.28








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  • 1 month later...

PHL 74.2 for June ended within the analog spread. 1958 (tu ;)  )  brought down the analog average. Countrywide not so good as June was hawt practically everywhere.  July being the hottest one relative to average looks "good" right now leaving an odd cool down for August to make this outlook "work".



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July 2016 at PHL managed to somehow remain within the analog spread thanks to 1995 being included. Mean temp was 81.2F. Nationally looks like we did pretty good in Idaho and Montana, except we dont live there.  August is the make/break month for what I'd give myself as a C summer outlook so far.  Relative to normal August was outlooked cooler than normal by 5 of the 6 analogs, so there was no 1958 dragging it down. 




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  • 5 weeks later...

August was an absolute failure on my part as it was the warmest August on record.  This summer was following 1987 analog closely for June & July and then jumped to 1995 (even warmer) for August.  I think a few people would take the ensuing winter.  Overall this was a bad, bad outlook, I give myself a D- only June saving me from an F.  Conversely props to Mitch who had a much better and hotter outlook. :)


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