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Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion, Where The 90s Live.


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you can see it on the GEFS, EPS aren't as amplified with the western ridge but they do develop a trof in the means over the east. +pna/-epo couplet

 

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Darn, you beat my post.............again.

 

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Here is Tom singing on what he thinks about western noam ridging during the summer:

 

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Assuming a shutout of the 90s going into June (long term average is 1), here are the number of days that max temps hit 90 or higher:

 

Single digit totals.....7 times

10s..........................38 times

20s..........................15 times

30s..........................6 times

40s..........................3 times

 

Greatest was 49 times in 1995.

 

While the lower number frequency was obviously helped by more occurrences prior to 1950, the four times it occurred this century, our 90 degree day totals were 23, 29, 23 and 19 times.

 

 

The running 30 year mean (ending last summer) on this is 28 times (days) of 90 degree or greater high temps.

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euro has the first 90s for the region late next week. 

 

I want to thank the Euro for making my point, pointless.  I just started working on the weekly spread sheets, even these week 2 barn burners have not materialized........yet.  GFS FWIW had highest temp @ 85F.

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I want to thank the Euro for making my point, pointless.  I just started working on the weekly spread sheets, even these week 2 barn burners have not materialized........yet.  GFS FWIW had highest temp @ 85F.

We mat not hit 90, but it's looking good for 80s, maybe well into them. EPS are low to mid 80s right now

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Still looking like after the 3-4 day warm up next week which should get places into the 80s. Memorial Day weekend into the following week temps looks to cool down more normal like. Looks like a solid Rex block signal with arch of HP from northern plains-se Canada and New England with storm tracks underneath that block. 

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Still looking like this ridge over the east kicks out during memorial day weekend or early in the following week. That then heads towards the plains/rockies and we get that backdoor cold front look for there after.

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EPS look nice after the weekend, temps return back to normal levels with highs in the upper 70s. Though, one thing to watch for is there is a little bit of a signal to wanting to pop a +pna, h5 hgts drop off from above normal to near normal in the 11-15day in response to that.

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