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5/2-5/3 Potential Crush job of rain and t-storms


tombo82685
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This is probably the writing on the wall starting this, but there is some pretty good agreement that parts of the area could get hit with some good rains and storms later on tonight into tomorrow morning. I really don't see much of a severe threat unless you are down in lower delaware really. Besides that though, there is some deep moisture convergence starting to show up in the area as the warm front has stalled over the region. Pretty decent bulk shear too just south of the warm front which is fueling the storms down in dc along with some instability. PWATS are generally in the 1-1.3" rain, not super tropical but moist for sure.Below is the deep moisture convergence and effective bulk shear. 

 

dlcp.gif?1462234682534

eshr.gif?1462234925409

 

models are all over with where the heaviest goes. Euro was through del canal to acy zone.

nam

f27.gif

gfs

f33.gif

hrrr

hrrr_t_precip_harrisburg_16.png

rgem

PR_000-024_0000.gif

 

 

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1.38" in Sellersville area for the main event. Had .20" before midnight and 1.18" through this morning. Lightning was triggering the motion detection on my security camera last night. 

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