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Out of region but interesting reading -- your comments?


CameronCat
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Hi

Found this article in the Washington Post (Washington Weather Gang)

 

Long story short: Forecasters called for big-deal storms in the mid-west yesterday. Didn't happen in any volume.

Article discusses effects on the Average Joe resulting  from too much hype, etc.

 

Story here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/27/tuesdays-severe-weather-bust-is-a-communication-wake-up-call/

 

Your opinions?  Any lessons to be learned?

 

/CC

 

 

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Hi

Found this article in the Washington Post (Washington Weather Gang)

 

Long story short: Forecasters called for big-deal storms in the mid-west yesterday. Didn't happen in any volume.

Article discusses effects on the Average Joe resulting  from too much hype, etc.

 

Story here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/27/tuesdays-severe-weather-bust-is-a-communication-wake-up-call/

 

Your opinions?  Any lessons to be learned?

 

/CC

 

This is why my last several years at work I started to dread any snow situation because there was always some forecast "out there" that was a low probability ultra high amounts being bandied about by somebody that had a facebook page.  You spent way too much time on rumor control.

 

Its hard for me in the east to put in perspective as there was severe weather yesterday.  But what is becoming more common is that the models and forecasts in general are more dire than what actually occurs.  Gone (as in spring banter post) are the days of the lfm and ngm where events were almost always worse than forecast.  Now the balancing act becomes tougher as to decide when are the models overdoing it (next week's trof on the euro?) vs when are they pretty close vs the rarer occasions where conditions are still worse than forecast.

.

I took enough courses ad nauseam in which social scientists told us its better to overwarn than underwarn. I dont honestly know if that applies across every phenomenon. On the other hand, the genie (about pushing forecasts ahead of science IMO because of social media modelologists and some meteorologists tripping over themselves to be "first") is long out of the bottle.

 

post-27-0-04554800-1461785766.png

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There's this...not close to living up the hype but not as big of a "bust" as once believed: https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/725709145584881664

 

What Tony's talking about came up a fair amount when I worked at AccuWx. One thing that Joel Myers said, one bad forecast erases 20 good ones in the public mind. 

I have no idea if there has been a study into this, but I've wondered sometimes if people died in Sandy due to ignoring warnings post-Irene, which if many recall Irene was considered a massive bust and a lot of people mocked forecasters right after it.

 

Another thing I've not heard much about, I wonder how many people ignored Katrina warnings in the wake of Georges. A lot of people forget that one now, but Georges was "much ado about nothing" to many in the New Orleans area, and I remember a poll taken soon after that was mentioned on TWC that something like 60% of New Orleans metro residents said Georges hype made them less likely to evacuate in the next storm. 

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JamieO, they probably wouldn't put it in writing, but IMO what wounds occurred with Irene was too fresh in the minds of NYC to not be part of the decision making process. Ironically the fact that Sandy had so many extratropical features, the strongest winds aloft were over, near NYC and made matters worse.

There's this...not close to living up the hype but not as big of a "bust" as once believed: https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/725709145584881664

What Tony's talking about came up a fair amount when I worked at AccuWx. One thing that Joel Myers said, one bad forecast erases 20 good ones in the public mind.

I have no idea if there has been a study into this, but I've wondered sometimes if people died in Sandy due to ignoring warnings post-Irene, which if many recall Irene was considered a massive bust and a lot of people mocked forecasters right after it.

Another thing I've not heard much about, I wonder how many people ignored Katrina warnings in the wake of Georges. A lot of people forget that one now, but Georges was "much ado about nothing" to many in the New Orleans area, and I remember a poll taken soon after that was mentioned on TWC that something like 60% of New Orleans metro residents said Georges hype made them less likely to evacuate in the next storm.

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I've always enjoyed reading CWG's stuff, so I'm a little disappointed with the "scorching hot take" aspect of that article.  If the reverse situation occurred, there would be outrage.  I can't imagine how difficult/stressful it is trying to forecast severe weather in Tornado Alley.  

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I am late to this thread but wrote several posts on the topic over at Stormtrack. A few days before the Tuesday 4/26/16 event, the models actually did show several factors not conducive to an outbreak as originally-forecasted a week out, most notably meridional mid/upper winds and a veer-back-veer profile, and shallow moisture despite high surface dewpoints. Chasers began to sour on the setup several days prior to 4/26.

I can't speak to mainstream media forecasts and won't speak to social media hype, but at least insofar as SPC there seemed to be some element of maintaining continuity. Their convective outbreaks that day did somewhat downplay the tornado threat and the moderate risk area was largely related to the large hail and wind threat.

With respect to continuity, it is interesting to me that AFDs (whether Mt. Holly or others) explicitly mention the preservation of continuity despite new information or uncertainties, whereas at SPC it is clearly a factor but never explicitly mentioned in their convective outlooks.

In any event, whatever happened leading up to the day in question, it seems universally agreed that the "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch issued on 4/26 was overkill.

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