Jump to content

4/26 slgt risk thread


tombo82685
 Share

Recommended Posts


Today's SPC write-up

...PA/NJ AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ESEWD DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG HEATING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STEEPEN 0-2 KM

LAPSE RATES. STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-50 KT IN THE H7-H5

LAYER/ ATOP A DRY SUB-CLOUD/INVERTED-V PROFILE WILL SUPPORT THE

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH

ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now bumped up to slgt risk for the region today

 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1461678173139

 

...MID ATLC...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO AFTN ALONG/AHEAD
OF SFC COLD FRONT...IN PLUME OF DCVA IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING MID/UPPER
PERTURBATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD...OFFERING SPORADIC SVR
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. CLEARING BEHIND CLOUD/PRECIP REMNANTS OF
OVERNIGHT/OH CONVECTION SHOULD PERMIT POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION...LEADING TO WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER
BENEATH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL BE VEERED WITH STG
WLY COMPONENT...AND DEEP-LAYER PROFILES ESSENTIALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...LIMITING CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL CINH SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AMIDST FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR. POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS COLD FROPA OCCURS OVER LARGER SHARE
OF AREA AND REMAINING SFC WARM SECTOR COOLS DIABATICALLY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Nam:

KPHL:

d29c6bf87cffbddb430a62560695d40c.jpg

Ok speed shear, barely any directional shear. Pulse type convection, maybe a smaller line segment would be the convective mode. Clearing out nicely in SEPA.

I just drove through the warm front coming home from Niagra (in the passenger seat as in typing this). That was brutal. Downpours, fog, and TT wash for the first 4 hours of the trip.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

a0dcbd2c861baf64fa8b34671cbe9eb4.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NE WV...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261719Z - 261845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS

AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PA...NJ AND NRN MD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND

HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED

ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER SE PA WITH

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN PA. TO

THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F AND THIS IS

CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE

ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING

CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG

THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

ACROSS SCNTRL PA WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING WWD ACROSS SW

PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL PA AND NJ FOR 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM

SHEAR OF 50 KT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH

UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD

BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS

EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN MD AND DELAWARE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40647966 40827809 40837662 40947544 40917443 40777401

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe T-Storm Watch just issued for the entire area until 9pm.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Statement as of 1:55 PM EDT on April 26, 2016
 
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
 
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
  Delaware
  northern Maryland
  New Jersey
  the southern two-thirds of Pennsylvania
  coastal waters
 
* effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  900 PM EDT.
 
* Primary threats include...
  scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
 
Summary...short lines of thunderstorms expected to form along and
ahead of W-E cold front moving sewd across PA and NJ later
today...where wind and thermodynamic environments suggest a
potential for damaging wind gusts and some hail.
 
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest
of Latrobe Pennsylvania to 30 miles southeast of Lakehurst New
Jersey.  For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou7).
 
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
 
Remember...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.
 
 
Other watch information...continue...ww 105...ww 106...
 
Aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots.
A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 30040.
 
 
...Corfidi
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...