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Medium - long range tropics


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Spin the Weather Wheel!    

Weight loss surgery, I'll be out of the office for a few weeks but only one night in the hospital. 

Classic la-la-land for the GFS, come for the major landfalling hurricane in Florida, stay for the blizzard.  

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Kind of a concerning look in a week and a half, as both the GFS and Euro ensembles show high pressure overtop of future Sally near Puerto Rico. Maybe a small enough weakness in between to give her a path out to sea, but she looks like more of a threat to land than Paulette and Rene will ever be.

Euro also has Teddy and Vicky moving off Africa within 10 days, and perhaps Wilfred getting ready to move over water. Would really be something if we get to the Greek alphabet and it's not even October :unsure2:

gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_41.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_atl_11.png

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_11.png

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On 9/10/2020 at 8:38 AM, ACwx said:

Kind of a concerning look in a week and a half, as both the GFS and Euro ensembles show high pressure overtop of future Sally near Puerto Rico. Maybe a small enough weakness in between to give her a path out to sea, but she looks like more of a threat to land than Paulette and Rene will ever be.

Euro also has Teddy and Vicky moving off Africa within 10 days, and perhaps Wilfred getting ready to move over water. Would really be something if we get to the Greek alphabet and it's not even October :unsure2:

gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_41.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_atl_11.png

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_11.png

The pattern “may” be just progressive enough (La la land +NAO) with just enough weakness in the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell. 

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8 hours ago, JimCaruso said:

Quite an impressive parade of tropical systems. But looks like none will pose an east coast threat. Even the two systems closest to Africa look like they will be making very early recurves.

 

 

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Its "Gulf" season this year.  LA and TX getting dumped on in 2020.

 

 

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Some interesting solutions starting to show up for Teddy after he passes Bermuda. The past couple of runs, the Euro has been showing an upper-level low digging down and swinging Teddy back into Atlantic Canada. The 00z run swung it even further south into Maine. A decent chunk of the Euro ensembles and even some of the UKmet ensembles show a similar solution. The GFS wants nothing to do with this and punts Teddy right out to sea.

Still a while away and models don't handle upper-level lows too well anyway so I'm sure there will be tons of changes, but just from the fact of how strong Teddy will be before any interaction (consensus is a major hurricane), our neighbors to the northeast of us should have an eyebrow raised.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96-168.gif

AL20_2020091600_ECENS.png

AL20_2020091600_UKMET.png

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3 hours ago, ACwx said:

12z Euro doubles down on Teddy, 958mb the frame before this. Pretty much every ensemble member brings him close to New England.

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

AL20_2020091612_ECENS_large.png

Maybe I'll stand on my roof and wave at it going by to my SE while doing my chimney work.

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On 9/16/2020 at 3:55 PM, ACwx said:

12z Euro doubles down on Teddy, 958mb the frame before this. Pretty much every ensemble member brings him close to New England.

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

AL20_2020091612_ECENS_large.png

The Euro westward bias has been pretty bad with tropical systems this season. The ensembles go along. Someone posted that Laura went east of every ensemble member on one Euro run.  This was not la la land either.  It is at the point until it verifies otherwise I expect Teddy to be east of wherever the Euro has it tracking.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Although there have been many landfalls, the number of major status days has been limited. Laura is story of the year.

Basin Named Storms Named Storm Days Hurricanes Hurricane Days Major Hurricanes Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy
North Atlantic 25 (10.5) 86.75 (50.8) 9 (5.3) 22.75 (20.9) 3 (2.4) 5.75 (5.6) 123.1 (91.4)
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