Jump to content

Medium - long range tropics


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 897
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Spin the Weather Wheel!    

Weight loss surgery, I'll be out of the office for a few weeks but only one night in the hospital. 

Classic la-la-land for the GFS, come for the major landfalling hurricane in Florida, stay for the blizzard.  

Posted Images

Emperical wave propagation chart.. .5  month running from june 15th-July 25th....

this is just 1 product, not a forecast. Looks like maybe a more favorable state in the Atlantic come July for a brief period?

ewp.gif


The shear in the Lower Atlantic Basin is pretty rough right now. Homebrew might be out best shot this year if this keeps up over the tropical Atlantic & Carribean:

wg8sht.GIF

Link to post
Share on other sites

Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development?

Link to post
Share on other sites

monsoonal shenanigans or actually a wave that came off Africa at some point?

No, it's actually the tail end of the front that will move through here tomorrow/Thursday. You get some wave breaking at the tail end and SSTs are warm enough to support convection. But it would clearly be subtropical - at best - if it formed.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development?

The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not.

splitE.jpg

And shear in the ATL:

wg8sht.GIF

Here's a question for you Adam. What level does the SAL cover? usually lower altitudes? or is it dependent on pressures and such? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks baroclinic to me. Might be transitioning right at 240.

Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal?

Same one. In the Euro, it starts over the Carolinas this weekend, heads south toward Florida, gets picked up by the front Thursday, then rides the boundary through the weekend. Looks convectively active off the East Coast on D10.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just good for thought. The streak continues...

The last "major", category 3 or higher, hurricane to hit the US was Wilma , October 2005. That's some 8 years, 9 months roughly. Pretty incredible streak. This is strictly based on storm category on the S-S scale.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...