irishbri74 Posted June 15, 2014 Report Share Posted June 15, 2014 Place all medium/general outlook talk in here. Doesn't look like June will produce: Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2014 Emperical wave propagation chart.. .5 month running from june 15th-July 25th....this is just 1 product, not a forecast. Looks like maybe a more favorable state in the Atlantic come July for a brief period?The shear in the Lower Atlantic Basin is pretty rough right now. Homebrew might be out best shot this year if this keeps up over the tropical Atlantic & Carribean: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 23, 2014 Report Share Posted June 23, 2014 Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week Still there in the models, but much weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Still there in the models, but much weaker monsoonal shenanigans or actually a wave that came off Africa at some point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 monsoonal shenanigans or actually a wave that came off Africa at some point? No, it's actually the tail end of the front that will move through here tomorrow/Thursday. You get some wave breaking at the tail end and SSTs are warm enough to support convection. But it would clearly be subtropical - at best - if it formed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development? The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not. And shear in the ATL: Here's a question for you Adam. What level does the SAL cover? usually lower altitudes? or is it dependent on pressures and such? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Here's a question for you Adam. What level does the SAL cover? usually lower altitudes? or is it dependent on pressures and such? Mid-levels. Generally 700-500mb, but can go as high as 300mb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 Mid-levels. Generally 700-500mb, but can go as high as 300mb. So with it being in those levels the dry air reduces thunderstorm development? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 24, 2014 Report Share Posted June 24, 2014 So with it being in those levels the dry air reduces thunderstorm development? Yup. It's actually not as much the dry air, but an elevated mixed layer that caps any convection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 26, 2014 Report Share Posted June 26, 2014 Adam, 0z euro last night, is that a tropical system or just strong noreaster in day 8-10 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 26, 2014 Report Share Posted June 26, 2014 Looks baroclinic to me. Might be transitioning right at 240. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 26, 2014 Report Share Posted June 26, 2014 Looks baroclinic to me. Might be transitioning right at 240. Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 26, 2014 Report Share Posted June 26, 2014 Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal? Same one. In the Euro, it starts over the Carolinas this weekend, heads south toward Florida, gets picked up by the front Thursday, then rides the boundary through the weekend. Looks convectively active off the East Coast on D10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 30, 2014 Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week Another pretty solid call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted June 30, 2014 Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 Another pretty solid call Didn't expect it to get picked up by a mid-latitude trough in July... :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2014 Just good for thought. The streak continues... The last "major", category 3 or higher, hurricane to hit the US was Wilma , October 2005. That's some 8 years, 9 months roughly. Pretty incredible streak. This is strictly based on storm category on the S-S scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 Getting ready to head into Cape Verde season come August... Nothing looks promising as far as favorable conditions go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 28, 2014 Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 I'm guessing there is going to be quite a bit of hype surrounding 93L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 I'm guessing there is going to be quite a bit of hype surrounding 93L Justified? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 28, 2014 Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 Justified? I would imagine if it is justified and some what of a WAR presence that it could be an east coast threat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 28, 2014 Report Share Posted July 28, 2014 Eh. It's plausible at this point. The MJO coming around at least brings it within the realm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Any potential with 94l ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.