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The 3/7 Weeklies Better Call (SSW) Saul


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Well according to the CFS2 Saul is already in hiding at the Cinnabon in King of Prussia. 

 

Week 1: +9F

Week 2: +9F

Week 3: +7F

Week 4: +5F

 

Week 3 & 4 they have epo ridging over Alaska, but our heights are still above normal here (highest for the conus centered right over us week 3).

 

Precip dry week 1 and 2, near normal (closer to wet), weeks 3 and 4.

 

I didnt post the Canadian weeklies on Thursday night.  They start on Mondays also, no Monday update though.

 

Week 1: >90% above normal

Week 2: above normal

Week 3: near normal

Week 4: above normal

 

Week 1 dry, weeks 2 thru 4 near normal.

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week 1 +ao/+epo/+nao/-pna/ torch

week 2 -epo/+pna(but it's a split flow and there is a trof on the west coast too)/+ao/+nao

week 3 slightly +pna/-epo/+nao/neutral ao/ (coolest week, but still above normal)

week 4 -pna/-epo/neutral ao/+nao

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week 1 +ao/+epo/+nao/-pna/ torch

week 2 -epo/+pna(but it's a split flow and there is a trof on the west coast too)/+ao/+nao

week 3 slightly +pna/-epo/+nao/neutral ao/ (coolest week, but still above normal)

week 4 -pna/-epo/neutral ao/+nao

Given the SSW is for real, shouldn't that make week 4 suspect?
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Given the SSW is for real, shouldn't that make week 4 suspect?

Well week 4s in general are lol, but I dunno it depends where the pv's go. But the only week that has somewhat meridonal flow is week 3, everything else is very zonal with some hint of se ridge in response to trof out west. 

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Well week 4s in general are lol, but I dunno it depends where the pv's go. But the only week that has somewhat meridonal flow is week 3, everything else is very zonal with some hint of se ridge in response to trof out west.

Where you think its gonna go? Trust me with ssw your guess is better than mine.
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Where you think its gonna go? Trust me with ssw your guess is better than mine.

From looking at the euro plots it looks like the main warmth comes from north america side, particularly canada that builds into the pole. That pushes the pv towards asia and europe. Once it does split the larger daughter vortex remains in Asia, while the other smaller vortex migrates from europe over to north america but it's weakening as it does so and it's tightly compacted too. That may be the week 3 cool shot we are seeing on the weeklies. You can see the bubble of below normal hgts over hudson bay.

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