Harbourton Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 Al, Personally I think the op or "control" have too much influence over its ensemble members. The fact that poorer resolution ensemble members are more amplified than the higher resolution op says something in this instance. Most of the time I'd expect the ensemble mean to be east of the op. Its also like Tom posted, it seems like the GFS has thrown the oh lets take it east solutions (just like the Euro has thrown out the oh lets just visit Mexico or Cuba solutions) only to bring it back as we came closer. I'm just worried about the "bermuda solution." Thanks for the insight about the operational controlling things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 Model disco here folks. Other thread exceeded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is pretty much a weak SLP/wave of precip. Pretty Weak look. H5 is all stretched out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 Didn't it do that with the last storm for some of its runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 Didn't it do that with the last storm for some of its runs? yea it had a couple runs where it was rather meh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 based on the 12z gfs looks like a white rain fest for most of wed. yawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2016 Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 In the gfs case, you really need a stronger low to pull the cold air in into the storm outside of the mountains. If you get this strung out wave it's basically a cold rain or rain/snow mix that may flip to all snow at the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 If anything spread increased in GEFS at 18z mainly due to more cutters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 If anything spread increased in GEFS at 18z mainly due to more cutters. Antacid sales are sky-rocketing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 based on the 12z gfs looks like a white rain fest for most of wed. yawn. The surface high has gone from maybe arriving too late to maybe leaving too soon even with a favorable offshore track. It looks like a pacific storm is wreaking havoc on the timing / amplitude of the western ridge. There are other northern stream impulses that are also changing sounding run to sounding run. Don't know if features are in never never land why the models collectively outside of the ukie went tepid. I guess tonight and tomorrow there will be another story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 The surface high has gone from maybe arriving too late to maybe leaving too soon even with a favorable offshore track. It looks like a pacific storm is wreaking havoc on the timing / amplitude of the western ridge. There are other northern stream impulses that are also changing sounding run to sounding run. Don't know if features are in never never land why the models collectively outside of the ukie went tepid. I guess tonight and tomorrow there will be another story. that's why it's still day whatever. Get the features in the upper air network and we'll know what's what. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 wake me up saturday night for those runs. Till then nothing really has merit, to much shifting around right now. The only steady course has been the eps really. Wouldn't shock me if the euro bounces back to a stronger storm tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 One thing is for sure, if it does snow, this isn't a wind whipped powder storm. This is a gigi ice cream caked snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 One thing that has changed on the eps, is the banana high look with this storm. It now has more of a high retreating and a great lakes low starting to enter the picture. That could cause some issues for coastal areas and back into the burbs if there isn't a strong storm to pull down some cold from the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 One thing is for sure, if it does snow, this isn't a wind whipped powder storm. This is a gigi ice cream caked snow Hmmm. If you get a student of Bob Ross to draw the painting, I will rent a tug boat and drag the low along the most ideal track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sunday night/Monday wave flat on GFS, Euro. Not flat on the NAM and Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps huge shift west overnight. Ugly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Guidance shifted west last night at 00z and GFS/GEFS shifted further west at 06z - so this one is not looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro was a coastal hugger that went just east of nyc. south of 295 you really get nothing. belmar-mt holly-phl-hockessin, de starts 2" line. Tight gradient between i95 and rt 1 corridor..rt 1 starts the 4" line.. west chester-doylestown line is about 5".. ukt-ptw-msq is 6" line... lns-rdg-abe is 7-9" pocs are 9/10. we basically get a thump and then dry slot. Heaviest precip is out in central pa with decaying primary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro and the eps shifted that ridge out west further west last night. If that look holds there is no reason for this to not cut to pittsburgh like last storm or up the apps. That feature has changed a ton in the past couple days with sliding west, which is bringing the cutter solutions on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Anyways, snowfall mean ticked up a little on eps. 2" line is a little past 295... 3" line is down to 202 corridor. 4" line is at blue mtn, and pocs are 4.5-5" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 EPS mean track has a look of primary up into sw pa, then hands off to a coastal hugger that goes over LI.. spread is still huge from detroit to bermuda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 snowfall mean definitely is skewed by one member of like 25"+, so in general it's a downward tick from yesterday with the amount of members showing snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 stronger western atlantic ridge, the banana high signature on euro fading, and ridge position out west shifting west are all changes in the past 2/3 days that have brought on warmer solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 it will be interesting to see the euro para run if it comes out around 7am. The euro op has lagging it by one run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.