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Model Disco- close out winter special day 5+


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Al,

 

Personally I think the op or "control" have too much influence over its ensemble members. The fact that poorer resolution ensemble members are more amplified than the higher resolution op says something in this instance. Most of the time I'd expect the ensemble mean to be east of the op.  Its also like Tom posted, it seems like the GFS has thrown the oh lets take it east solutions (just like the Euro has thrown out the oh lets just visit Mexico or Cuba solutions) only to bring it back as we came closer.

 

I'm just worried about the "bermuda solution." Thanks for the insight about the operational controlling things

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Didn't it do that with the last storm for some of its runs?

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based on the 12z gfs looks like a white rain fest for most of wed. yawn.

The surface high has gone from maybe arriving too late to maybe leaving too soon even with a favorable offshore track. It looks like a pacific storm is wreaking havoc on the timing / amplitude of the western ridge. There are other northern stream impulses that are also changing sounding run to sounding run. Don't know if features are in never never land why the models collectively outside of the ukie went tepid. I guess tonight and tomorrow there will be another story.

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The surface high has gone from maybe arriving too late to maybe leaving too soon even with a favorable offshore track. It looks like a pacific storm is wreaking havoc on the timing / amplitude of the western ridge. There are other northern stream impulses that are also changing sounding run to sounding run. Don't know if features are in never never land why the models collectively outside of the ukie went tepid. I guess tonight and tomorrow there will be another story.

that's why it's still day whatever. Get the features in the upper air network and we'll know what's what.
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One thing that has changed on the eps, is the banana high look with this storm. It now has more of a high retreating and a great lakes low starting to enter the picture. That could cause some issues for coastal areas and back into the burbs if there isn't a strong storm to pull down some cold from the north. 

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The euro was a coastal hugger that went just east of nyc. south of 295 you really get nothing. belmar-mt holly-phl-hockessin, de starts 2" line. Tight gradient between i95 and rt 1 corridor..rt 1 starts the 4" line.. west chester-doylestown line is about 5".. ukt-ptw-msq is 6" line... lns-rdg-abe is 7-9" pocs are 9/10. we basically get a thump and then dry slot. Heaviest precip is out in central pa with decaying primary.

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Euro and the eps shifted that ridge out west further west last night. If that look holds there is no reason for this to not cut to pittsburgh like last storm or up the apps. That feature has changed a ton in the past couple days with sliding west, which is bringing the cutter solutions on. 

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