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2/15 Weeklies, Smarch or Morch?


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week 1 weak +pna/+epo/+nao/-nao

week 2 +++pna/+epo/+ao/+nao

week 3 +pna/+epo/-ao/+nao

week 4 +pna/+epo/-ao/+nao/pretty nino like with stj cutting underneath with below normal hgts in south

 

outside week 2, wouldn't say it's a teribly cold patter, probably a lot of +2/+3 stuff. But it has an active look to it.

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Eventhough they are warm, snow chances through the end of the run.

i don't understand how though. Our normals are going up and that accelerates in march. If we are warmer than normal i would think snow chances are a long shot at best
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i don't understand how though. Our normals are going up and that accelerates in march. If we are warmer than normal i would think snow chances are a long shot at best

timing gets a lot harder. Maybe you have a few nighttime deals with temps in the 20's at night. Then have several days with slightly warmer than normal temps. This whole winter has been warm and snowy, why not March as well.
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i don't understand how though. Our normals are going up and that accelerates in march. If we are warmer than normal i would think snow chances are a long shot at best

I wouldn't take the weeklies temps to heart. Below is the h5 setup on the weeklies. It has a ridge up northeast of the caspian which usually connects to cross polar flow. Then ridge in the west and another ridge in center of the atlantic. While you have a trof over siberia and another over europe into greenland. Yet it has a very weak trof look in the eastern US. That should be deeper in the southeast to match the trof up over siberia. 

post-1-0-52296500-1455586979.jpg

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