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Meteorological Spring Pattern Discussion SMarch, SApril, Mayark...


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it better snow then!  :)  I Just ordered my annual buy 3 dozen get 1 free personalized titleist pro v1xs and I was kind of hoping for a Smorch.

Well the ec mjo ensembles take it into the cod before the colder phases, meanwhile the gfs has an everything under the sun ped assisted mjo ongoing entering SMarch.

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There has been historically a difference between uber strong ninos and run of the mill strong ninos has far as March goes, the former warmer less snowy, the latter colder and snowier.

That doesn't shock me really. Uber strong ninos in generally just seem to favor warmth 2/3rds of the time. The 12z gefs start below normal temps it looks like feb 26th and on till end of run. Eps are about a day earlier.

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That doesn't shock me really. Uber strong ninos in generally just seem to favor warmth 2/3rds of the time. The 12z gefs start below normal temps it looks like feb 26th and on till end of run. Eps are about a day earlier.

If its cold, let it be cold early. Nothing like 38 and windy on March 29th.

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12z GEFS on 16th flow is still from Canada, but not as brutal as end of Feb. I dont know if their MJO is too slow, but between wave 1 and the predicted mjo, would expect first week of Smarch to average cold.

The current and last 15 days looks like it was kelvin wave driven and not a true mjo signal from what I can gather. You can see it on mikes chart. On the space diagram here the kelvin wave is being mistaken for an mjo pulse. The question is what happens after the 28th of feb as it's in the COD? Do we get a true mjo or kelvin wave again?

 

kelvin wave space diagram

filterKELVIN_vp_Phase.png

notice how this matched up well with cpc's mjo

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

Roundy's plot takes the tropical wave around the horn, but once it's in phase 8 and 1 you lose the big kelvin wave signal. Could just also be to far out to be picking it up

 

2016.png

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Here is also another wave 1 attack on the pv in early march. If it can displace the pv like this past episode did, then probably expect another arctic blast in first half of march. The gefs post day 10 were showing this pv wave 1 displacement alignment. 

 

waves.gif

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EPS and gefs starting to show potential for some -nao action to start off march. As of now more east base, but have to see if that look continues. That time period is also going in hand with another big pv displacement, but this time it's pushing the pv towards asia and europe, not over greenland.

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