Jump to content

The 2/4 MJO driven weeklies


Mitchg
 Share

Recommended Posts

So much run to run differences I have little confidence in the weeklies tonight. My guesses are based on that they will follow the MJO wheel for better or worse. 

 

Week 1  no guess

Week 2  no guess

Week 3 +3

Week 4 +2

 

As for myself, I think plenty of things to track the next two weeks. A relaxation should be in the offering for week 3 but not sure how long it lasts. I could see winter come back for week 4. Not high confidence. Since I have access to the EPS now, I won't guess weeks 1 and 2 since I can see them before the weeklies come out. 

 

Mike Ventrice: 

 

Gotta take tonight's ECMWF weekly run with a grain of salt. Already big changes to the 12Z EPS when compared to the 0Z run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

week 1 +pna/-ao/slightly -epo/+nao

week 2  +pna/-ao/+epo/e-nao/split flow

week 3 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao/ split flow

week 4+pna/-epo/-ao/neutral nao/split flow

 

for all those who canceled winter after monday's weeklies, thursdays weeklies uncanceled the canceled winter naysayers 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

week 1 +pna/-ao/slightly -epo/+nao

week 2  +pna/-ao/+epo/e-nao/split flow

week 3 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao/ split flow

week 4+pna/-epo/-ao/neutral nao/split flow

 

for all those who canceled winter after monday's weeklies, thursdays weeklies uncanceled the canceled winter naysayers

Reloading on cold by end of week 3 into central conus, warmup looks like it lasts about 5 days now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So much run to run differences I have little confidence in the weeklies tonight. My guesses are based on that they will follow the MJO wheel for better or worse. 

 

Week 1  no guess

Week 2  no guess

Week 3 +3

Week 4 +2

 

As for myself, I think plenty of things to track the next two weeks. A relaxation should be in the offering for week 3 but not sure how long it lasts. I could see winter come back for week 4. Not high confidence. Since I have access to the EPS now, I won't guess weeks 1 and 2 since I can see them before the weeklies come out. 

 

Mike Ventrice: 

 

Gotta take tonight's ECMWF weekly run with a grain of salt. Already big changes to the 12Z EPS when compared to the 0Z run.

 

How do we know which one is right?  Could it be a rogue day run? Could it be onto something?  I would glean there is more uncertainty (as if there wasn't enough already) until the 00z eps either corroborated it or disputed it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...